OTTAWA, March 15, 2013 /CNW/ - The Canadian Real Estate Association
(CREA) has updated its forecast for home sales activity via the
Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations in 2013 and
extended the outlook to include 2014.
National sales activity has held fairly stable after gearing down last
August in the wake of changes to mortgage lending rules and guidelines.
Supply is responding to lower demand, keeping the housing market in
balanced territory and resulting in stable average prices. However,
national housing market trends continue to mask some increasingly
divergent regional trends.
Sales activity in the second half of 2012 geared down by more than
previously anticipated in some housing markets, resulting in a downward
revision to the national sales forecast for 2013. The continuation of
low interest rates will remain supportive for housing activity and
prices this year and next year. Sales are still expected to improve
later this year in tandem with stronger economic growth.
National sales activity is forecast to reach 441,500 units in 2013. This
represents a 2.9 per cent decline from 454,573 sales in 2012, and
stands five per cent below the 10-year average (2003 - 2012). It was
also a downward revision from the previous forecast for a 2.0 per cent
Alberta and Manitoba are the only provinces where sales are expected to
rise in 2013, albeit modestly. The percentage decline in sales in
Saskatchewan, Ontario, Quebec, and Nova Scotia is forecast to exceed
the national result this year. The percentage decline in sales in
British Columbia, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland and Labrador is
forecast to be less than the national result.
Strong sales in the first half of last year will cast a long shadow over
year-over-year comparisons during the first half of 2013 in many parts
of the country. The smaller annual decline being forecast for British
Columbia and New Brunswick reflects a weakening trend in these
provinces during the first half of 2012 that was not apparent
In 2014, CREA forecasts that national activity will rebound by 4.5 per
cent to 461,200 units, reflecting a slow but steady improvement in
activity. This would still leave national sales about one per cent
below their 10-year-average, with activity not expected to return to
levels recorded in the first half of 2012 at any point in the forecast
British Columbia is forecast to see the strongest sales increase in 2014
(+9.5%), albeit from a low base, with most other provinces forecast to
post gains in the range between three and five per cent as the
continuation of moderate economic, job, population, and income growth
offsets small and gradual interest rates increases next year.
"All real estate markets are local, with prospects that can and do
differ by region and community," said Wayne Moen, CREA President. "For
that reason, buyers and sellers should talk to their REALTOR® about the housing market outlook where they live or would like to
"Mortgage rules are expected to remain as they are, so sales should be
less volatile than they have been in recent years," said Gregory Klump,
CREA's Chief Economist. "Interest rates are also expected to remain low
as the economy grows and adds jobs, which is supportive for the resale
The national average home price is projected to edge down by 0.2 per
cent to $362,600 in 2013. This is slightly lower than was previously
forecast. While largely flat at the national level, gains in excess of
inflation are still expected in the Prairies and in Newfoundland.
British Columbia, Ontario, and New Brunswick are forecast to record
declines in their provincial average prices this year.
The national average price is forecast to edge back up by 1.7 per cent
to $368,700 in 2014. As in 2013, Alberta, Newfoundland, and to a lesser
extent Saskatchewan and Manitoba are forecast to see the biggest gains.
The forecast increase in the national average price in 2014 reflects a
modest rebound in British Columbia, where its provincial share of
national sales will return closer to normal and lift the national
SOURCE: Canadian Real Estate Association
For further information:
Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460