VICTORIA AND VANCOUVER, May 16, 2013 /CNW/ - Back-to-back double-digit
increases will vault British Columbia's international exports to the
top of the growth charts over the next two years, according to Export
Development Canada's (EDC) Global Export Forecast.
EDC's Chief Economist, Peter Hall, was in Victoria this morning for a
breakfast presentation to members of the Chamber of Commerce and in
Vancouver for a lunchtime speech with the Board of Trade to deliver
EDC's provincial export forecast, where he predicted B.C.'s exports
will grow by 11 per cent in 2013 and a further 12 per cent in 2014.
"British Columbia's exports are on track for a vibrant expansion,
sharing top spot among the provinces with Nova Scotia," said Mr. Hall.
"B.C. is enjoying an exceptional recovery in forestry and very strong
gains in ores and metals. Following recent ups-and-downs, B.C. is in an
international sales sweet spot this year and next."
The forestry sector accounts for approximately 32 per cent of the
province's international sales, the largest share of B.C.s total. Mr.
Hall predicted that provincial exports of forestry products will grow
by 25 per cent in 2013 and another 17 per cent in 2014, this after only
2 per cent growth in 2012.
"Forestry exports are set to experience impressive growth, with demand
and prices for lumber driven upwards by rising U.S. housing starts that
are expected to expand by 34 per cent in 2013 and 24 per cent in 2014.
Those are big numbers," said Mr. Hall. "The recovery of China's
construction sector will also add momentum. Looking forward, though,
supply constraints will start to emerge after 2014, suggesting
potential for significant investment in lumber capacity."
The energy sector is also an important contributor to the province's
export picture, accounting for 27 per cent of total international
sales. EDC's forecast predicts a 4 per cent decline this year, ahead of
10 per cent growth in 2014.
Coal, the largest subsector by far, is being hard hit by the sharp price
declines that took hold late last year," Mr. Hall said. "We expect coal
exports to shrink 12 per cent this year. At the same time, natural gas
will benefit from higher prices through 2014, but volumes will decline
as producers find it very hard to compete with lower-priced U.S. shale
gas. Significant long-term growth is expected only once sizable LNG
terminal capacity comes online."
Industrial goods (metals and ores) contribute 20 per cent of the
province's total exports. "B.C.'s recent mining expansions will drive
strong, double digit gains for each of the next two years," Mr. Hall
EDC's forecast also noted that the U.S. recovery that is taking shape
will mean solid growth for the province's machinery and equipment
producers and agri-food sales through 2014.
Nationally, Canadian merchandise exports are forecast to rise 9 per cent
in 2013 and 5 per cent in 2014, while economic growth (GDP) is expected
to rise 2.2 per cent this year and 1.9 next year. EDC is forecasting
global growth of 3.5 per cent in 2013 and 4.2 per cent in 2014.
EDC's semi-annual Global Export Forecast addresses the latest global
export conditions including market- and sector-specific insights to
help Canadian exporting companies grow their international and minimize
risk. It also analyzes a range of risks for which exporters should be
prepared. Read EDC's Global Export Forecast.
EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial
solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their
international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by
more than 7,400 Canadian companies and their global customers in up
to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining
and a recognized leader in financial reporting and economic analysis.
SOURCE: Export Development Canada
For further information:
Export Development Canada