OTTAWA, Nov. 22, 2012 /CNW/ - Export Development Canada's (EDC) forecast
for Quebec export growth calls for gains of 3 per cent this year and a
slight acceleration to 4 per cent in 2013.
"Quebec's export numbers are being decimated by weak prices for aluminum
and iron ore and flat precious metal prices," said Peter Hall, Chief
Economist, EDC. "Output gains in each of these segments paint a totally
different picture of activity."
The province's industrial goods sector (metals, chemicals and
pharmaceuticals) generates approximately 39 per cent of Quebec's
exports. EDC expects just 3 per cent export growth this year and 1 per
cent in 2013.
Aluminum exports will gain immediately from resolution of the strike at
the Alma smelter, and over the medium-term as Aluminerie Alouette
expands production. The fourfold boost in production at Osisko's
Malartic mine and the expansion of Agnico-Eagle's LaRonde mine will
give a substantial boost to gold production. Iron ore output is set for
further growth as New Millennium Iron begins shipping ore from its mine
at Schefferville in 2013 with output destined for India's Tata Steel.
Quebec's machinery and equipment sector accounts for more than 13 per
cent of the province's total exports, and is forecast to grow by 11 per
cent this year and a further 6 per cent in 2013. "Quebec is set to
capitalize on a surge of investment spending in the United States,"
The transportation sector is also important to Quebec's export picture,
responsible for 12 per cent of the province's total exports, and it is
set to eke out 1 per cent growth this year before rebounding with 6 per
cent growth next year. A key driver of this sector is the aerospace
After a slow start, the province's aerospace exports will record limited
gains this year and next with business jet deliveries expected to drive
most of the growth. Although new commercial aircraft orders have
slowed, a backlog of orders will support deliveries over the short
term. Bombardier's long-awaited C-Series is now in testing phase, with
the plane's first flight planned before end of year, which has the
potential to create long-term gains in this industry.
Diversification of Quebec's exports markets continues with growth to
emerging markets outpacing that of developed markets for key industries
including aluminum, iron and steel and aerospace.
"Despite the fact that the number of exporters in Quebec has declined
over the past decade, from 8,108 in 1999 to 8,001 in 2011, the
province's share of exports to emerging markets grew to reach 13 per
cent in 2011, up from 8 per cent in 2007, and that bodes well for
Quebec in the long term," said Hall.
EDC's semi-annual Global Export Forecast addresses the latest global
export conditions including perspectives on interest rates, exchange
rates as well as export strategies to help Canadian companies minimize
risk. It also analyzes a range of risks for which exporters should be
prepared. The forecast is available on EDC's website at: http://www.edc.ca/gef.
EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial
solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their
international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by
more than 7,700 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to
200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining and
a recognized leader in financial reporting and economic analysis.
SOURCE: Export Development Canada
For further information:
Export Development Canada
Tel: (613) 598-2904