TORONTO, Sept. 22, 2015 /CNW/ - RBC Economics downgraded its forecast
for the Canadian economy due primarily to the ongoing weakness in the
energy sector, according to the latest RBC Economic Outlook issued today. Canada's real GDP is projected to grow 1.2 per cent in
2015, below the 1.8 per cent forecast in June, and 2.2 per cent in 2016
- 0.4 per cent lower than earlier predictions.
RBC says that, while Canada's economy contracted mildly in both the
first and second quarters of 2015, the depth of the decline was
marginal and the weakness was concentrated mostly in the energy sector.
Moreover, RBC expects positive economic activity outside of the energy
sector to offset momentum lost in the first half of the year.
"The recent softening in the Canadian economy caused a flurry of
recession talk, which we believe to be misplaced," said Craig Wright,
senior vice-president and chief economist, RBC. "Not only did the June
GDP gain of 0.5 per cent point to positive growth leading into the
third quarter, a more compelling argument is the steadfast strength in
Canada's labour market."
Despite the unemployment rate inching up to 7 per cent in August from a
consecutive six-month reading of 6.8 per cent, RBC notes that Canada's
labour market continued to generate approximately 14,000 new jobs per
month in 2015. Additionally, wage gains accelerated starting in the
month of May, suggesting that businesses were competing for workers
instead of laying them off.
RBC's Outlook also showed an uptick in consumer spending in Canada in
the second quarter of 2015, resulting from increased purchases of
durable goods, including autos. RBC notes that a one-time boost to
incomes from the retroactive Universal Child Care payment likely
underpinned an even stronger increase in spending in the third quarter.
"Along with an increase in spending, Canadians continued to take
advantage of low borrowing costs during the first half of 2015, with
household debt balances rising at the quickest pace in more than two
years," Wright added. "That said, historically low interest rates and,
to a lesser extent, sustained income gains have kept the costs to
service these debt balances at a record low."
Due to lower gasoline prices and ongoing job creation and wage gains in
the Canadian labour market, RBC expects stronger consumption growth in
Canada for 2016.
On the housing front, low interest rates continue to stimulate demand in
2015, despite lingering effects from oil price declines and a spike in
condo completions in certain regions. However, the seemingly insatiable
appetite for housing is not equally shared across the country, with
home resale activity plummeting in oil industry sensitive markets such
as Alberta and Saskatchewan. Home resales at the national level are
expected to rise by five per cent in 2015, making it the second-highest
level on record. RBC expects home prices to rise by 4.6 per cent in
2015, little changed from 4.8 per cent in 2014. With interest rates
expected to rise in 2016, RBC anticipates that there will be a slight
easing in resale activity, slowing to 3.2 per cent.
On the business side, investment fell at double-digit rates in both the
first and second quarters of 2015. However, this was largely due to
cuts within the energy sector.
"Our forecast assumes that companies outside of the energy sector will
gradually increase investment, and we expect this will sufficiently
offset the pullback by energy producers in 2016, resulting in
relatively flat business investment growth next year," added Wright.
Looking ahead, RBC expects exports to boost the Canadian economy. As the
U.S. economy strengthens against a weakening Canadian dollar, demands
for Canadian exports are likely to accelerate. RBC notes that the
Canadian dollar is expected to remain under downward pressure in the
near-term, which will further improve the competitiveness of Canadian
RBC's Economic Outlook indicates that the economy is entering a period
of growth, reducing the need for the Bank of Canada (BoC) to ease
monetary policy any further. RBC expects the BoC to hold the overnight
rate at 0.5 per cent until the final quarter of 2016.
"With the economy approaching full capacity and the risk to the
inflation outlook shifting to the upside, we expect the BoC to begin to
increase the overnight rate late next year," Wright said.
On the provincial front, economies continue to be divided between oil
producers and oil consumers. The fallout from plunging oil prices
significantly dims the outlook for economic activity in Newfoundland
and Labrador, Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Prospects for Ontario, British Columbia, Quebec are brighter, as well as
for most of the other oil-consuming provinces, although the expected
liftoff in growth generally has been delayed.
South of the border, the U.S. economy roared back to life in the second
quarter, following a subdued start to 2015. RBC indicates that real GDP
increased at a 0.6 per cent annualized pace in the first quarter with
activity stifled by poor weather conditions, a west coast port strike
and reduced investment by energy companies. In the second quarter, real
GDP expanded at a 3.7 per cent annualized pace due to a reversal in
some of the factors that dampened activity at the start of the year.
RBC expects the U.S. economy to grow by 3 per cent in the second half
of 2015 backed by strength in labour market conditions, accommodative
financial conditions, lower energy costs, and improving access to
credit. Looking ahead to 2016, RBC maintains its call for growth in the
U.S. economy to be 3 per cent.
A complete copy of the RBC Economic and Financial Market Outlook is available as of 8 a.m. ET. A separate publication, RBC Economics Provincial Outlook, assesses the provinces according to economic growth, employment
growth, unemployment rates, retail sales, housing starts and consumer
For further information:
Craig Wright, RBC Economics Research, 416-974-7457
Paul Ferley, RBC Economics Research, 416-974-7231
Romina Mari, Communications, RBC Capital Markets, 416-974-3558