Perpetual Energy Inc. releases 2014 year-end reserves

CALGARY, Feb. 4, 2015 /CNW/ - (TSX:PMT) – Perpetual Energy Inc. ("Perpetual", the "Corporation" or the "Company") is pleased to release a summary of the Company's year-end 2014 reserves as reported by the independent engineering firm McDaniel and Associates Consultants Ltd. ("McDaniel").

Perpetual's proved and probable reserves increased by close to 70 percent (67 percent per share) year over year, largely driven by the recognition of reserves from the East Edson joint venture ("East Edson JV"), but also materially impacted by additions in West Edson from Perpetual's capital investment program in 2014.  In aggregate, reserve additions replaced production by almost seven times.

The majority of 2014 reserve additions were focused on liquids-rich natural gas in the Wilrich formation in the Greater Edson area. Year-over-year reserves for East and West Edson grew by 144 percent and now represent 73 percent of the Company's total proved and probable reserves. As a result of the capital injected pursuant to the East Edson JV transaction, Perpetual has accelerated capital investment and committed to a long term development plan,  thereby allowing McDaniel to substantially increase the reserve bookings to the technical level warranted.  Annual cash flows from the East Edson property are now forecast by McDaniel to exceed future development capital, making development of the property self-funding.

Despite a significant drop in both oil and gas price forecasts, increased reserve volumes translated into a 15 percent increase in the net present value of Perpetual's total proved plus probable reserves, discounted at eight percent ("NPV8%"). Realized finding and development ("F&D") costs of $11.14 per boe for 2014 reflect strong capital efficiencies in the Company's key focus areas of investment. Finding, development and acquisition costs were $9.77 per boe, highlighting positive metrics on the disposition component of the East Edson JV as well as the sale on non-core heavy oil properties in Mannville during the fourth quarter.

YEAR-END 2014 RESERVES

2014 Year-End Reserve Highlights

  • Perpetual's exploration and development program resulted in the addition of 50.1 MMboe of proved and probable reserves in 2014. Combined with net positive technical revisions of 0.8 MMboe due to performance, total reserve additions of 50.9 MMboe replaced 2014 production of 7.5 MMboe by 680 percent.
  • Total proved and probable reserves of 105.5 MMboe at December 31, 2014 were 69 percent higher than year-end 2013 (62.4 MMboe), after reflecting net dispositions of 0.7 MMboe in 2014. Similarly proved reserves increased by 22.6 MMboe (66 percent) to 56.7 MMboe at year-end 2014 from 34.1 MMboe at December 31, 2013.
  • At year-end 2014, reserves from Perpetual's two key diversifying growth plays, liquids-rich gas in the Greater Edson area and Mannville heavy oil in eastern Alberta, represented 77 percent of Perpetual's total proved and probable reserves, up from 59 percent at year-end 2013.
  • On a commodity basis, oil and natural gas liquids ("NGL") represent nine percent of Perpetual's total proved and probable reserves (nine percent of proved) at December 31, 2014.
  • McDaniel's estimate of net present value (NPV8%) of Perpetual's reserves at year-end 2014 was $781.7 million, up 15 percent ($104.8 million) from year-end 2013. This increase in net present value was recorded despite lower commodity price forecasts, asset dispositions and the monetization of gas over bitumen financial solution related to shut-in reserves.
  • Perpetual's reserve-based net asset value ("NAV") (discounted at eight percent) at year-end 2014 is estimated at $3.99 per share, up 30 percent from $3.07 per share calculated at year-end 2013.
  • Including changes in future development costs ("FDC"), Perpetual realized finding and development costs ("F&D") of $11.14 per boe in 2014 based on proved and probable reserves. Finding, development and acquisition costs (net of dispositions) ("FD&A") were $9.77 per boe in 2014 based on proved and probable reserves.

Reserves Disclosure

Company interest reserves included herein are before royalty burdens and including royalty interests. Reserves information is based on an independent reserves evaluation report prepared by McDaniel with an effective date of December 31, 2014 (the "McDaniel Report"), and has been prepared in accordance with National Instrument 51-101 ("NI 51-101") using McDaniel's forecast prices and costs. Complete NI 51-101 reserves disclosure including after-tax reserve values, reserves by major property and abandonment costs will be included in Perpetual's Annual Information Form ("AIF"), which will be filed in March 2015. Perpetual's reserves at December 31, 2014 are summarized below.

Company Interest Reserves at December 31, 2014(1)


Light and

Medium

Crude Oil
(Mbbl)

Heavy

Oil
(Mbbl)

Natural Gas

(MMcf)

Natural

Gas Liquids

(Mbbl)

Oil

Equivalent
(Mboe)

Proved Producing

29

1,785

119,356

540

22,246

Proved Non-Producing

48

25

11,715

28

2,053

Proved Undeveloped

14

387

178,505

2,271

32,423

Total Proved

92

2,196

309,575

2,839

56,723

Probable Producing

12

955

47,452

236

9,111

Probable Non-Producing, excluding

Gas Over Bitumen ("GOB")


51

149

22,596

44

4,009

Probable Undeveloped

4

378

178,835

2,166

32,354

Probable Shut-in Gas over Bitumen

-

-

19,878

-

3,313

Total Probable 

67

1,482

268,761

2,445

48,788

Total Proved and Probable 

159

3,678

578,337

5,284

105,511

(1)        May not add due to rounding

Total proved reserves account for 54 percent (2013 – 55 percent) of total proved and probable reserves. Proved producing reserves of 22.2 MMboe comprise 39 percent (2013 – 62 percent) of total proved reserves. Proved and probable developed reserves of 40.7 MMboe represent 39 percent (2013 – 63 percent) of total proved and probable reserves.  The increase in the proportion of undeveloped and probable reserves year over year reflects the transformation of a material portion of Perpetual's East Edson Wilrich prospect inventory into recognized reserves.

Reserves Reconciliation

Company Interest(1) 

Barrels of Oil Equivalent (Mboe)

Proved

Probable

Proved
and Probable

Opening Balance, December 31, 2013

34,086

28,348

62,433

Discoveries and Extensions

22,626

27,511

50,136

Technical Revisions

7,740

(6,923)

816

Dispositions, net of Acquisitions

(346)

(380)

(726)

Production

(7,502)

-

(7,502)

Economic Factors

120

233

353

Closing Balance, December 31, 2014

56,723

48,788

105,511

(1)        May not add due to rounding

Discoveries and extensions accounted for 50.1 MMboe of reserve additions and were related to capital investment activities primarily associated with the two key diversifying strategies, Mannville heavy oil in Eastern Alberta and liquids-rich gas from the Wilrich formation in the Greater Edson area in West Central Alberta. Incorporating net dispositions of 0.7 MMboe, at year-end 2014, reserves from these two core areas represent 77 percent of Perpetual's total proved and probable reserves, up from 59 percent at year-end 2013. On a commodity basis, oil and NGL represent nine percent of Perpetual's total proved and probable reserves (nine percent of proved), compared to 13 percent (13 percent of proved) at year-end 2013, highlighting the effect on commodity mix of the material increase in the liquids-rich gas reserves in the Greater Edson area and reflecting the sale of non-core heavy oil reserves in Mannville.

McDaniel recorded net positive technical revisions related to performance totaling 0.8 MMboe in 2014 on a proved and probable basis. These net positive technical revisions were primarily attributed to improved well performance in the Company's shallow gas assets in eastern Alberta, offset by negative reductions for lower NGL yields at East and West Edson due in part to processing changes. The installation of the refrigeration plant at West Edson and corresponding change in processing and marketing arrangements, combined with the shift of East Edson production through lower cost, shallow cut facilities, resulted in NGL that was previously recognized as reserves now being recorded as higher heat content natural gas sales.

The table below summarizes the FDC estimated by McDaniel by play type to bring non-producing and undeveloped reserves to production.

Future Development Capital(1)






($ millions)

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Remainder

Total

Eastern Alberta Shallow Gas

1.9

3.4

4.9

0.4

0.2

1.0

11.7


Mannville Heavy Oil

0.3

11.8

-

-

-

-

12.1


Greater Edson Wilrich

108.3

77.1

77.9

70.0

77.5

243.5

654.3


Total

110.5

92.3

82.9

70.3

77.7

244.5

678.2


(1)        May not add due to rounding

McDaniel estimates the FDC required to convert proved and probable non-producing and undeveloped reserves to proved producing reserves to be $678.2 million at December 31, 2014. Estimated FDC increased by $448.2 million to $678.2 million at year-end 2014, up from $230.0 million at year-end 2013. The majority of the increase related to the future development of reserves at East Edson where $525.4 million is anticipated to be spent to expand the infrastructure and develop the reserves to maintain production at full capacity of 60 MMcf/d for ten years.  Additionally, FDC increased at West Edson with the recognition of seven (3.5 net) incremental locations relative to the 2013 year-end report.  Both of these projects are forecast by McDaniel to generate annual operating cash flow in excess of the annual FDC, making the projects self-funding.

RESERVE LIFE INDEX ("RLI")

Perpetual's proved and probable reserves to production ratio, also referred to as reserve life index, was 11.9 years at year-end 2014 while the proved RLI was 7.3 years, based upon the 2015 production estimates in the McDaniel Report. The following table summarizes Perpetual's historical calculated RLI.

Reserve Life Index(1)





2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

Total Proved

7.3

5.2

6.1

5.3

4.9

Proved and Probable

11.9

8.6

11.0

9.7

8.7

(2)        Calculated as year-end reserves divided by year one production estimate from the McDaniel Report.

NET PRESENT VALUE ("NPV") OF RESERVES SUMMARY

Perpetual's oil, natural gas and NGL reserves were evaluated by McDaniel using McDaniel's product price forecasts effective January 1, 2015 prior to provision for financial oil and natural gas price hedges, income taxes, interest, debt service charges and general and administrative expenses. The following table summarizes the NPV of funds flows from recognized reserves at January 1, 2015, assuming various discount rates. It should not be assumed that the discounted future net funds flows estimated by McDaniel represent the fair market value of the potential future production revenue of the company.

NPV of Reserves(1)(2)



Discounted at

($ thousands)

Undiscounted

5%

8%

10%

Proved Producing

$  197,805

$178,591

$166,506

$159,240

Proved Non-Producing

25,310

20,699

18,648

17,489

Proved Undeveloped

252,260

156,612

117,311

96,280

Total Proved

475,376

355,902

302,465

273,009

Probable Producing

136,667

106,484

92,533

84,863

Probable Non-Producing (excl GOB)

43,849

34,993

31,248

29,166

Probable Undeveloped

754,360

434,824

325,660

272,596

Probable Shut-in Gas over Bitumen

56,703

37,550

29,834

25,758

Total Probable

991,579

613,851

479,275

412,383

Total Proved and Probable

$1,466,955

$969,753

$781,740

$685,392

(1)        January 1, 2015 McDaniel Forecast Prices and Costs
(2)        May not add due to rounding

At an eight percent discount factor, total proved reserves account for 39 percent (2013 – 55 percent) of the proved and probable value.  Proved producing reserves comprise 21 percent (2013 – 38 percent) of the total proved and probable value, while proved and probable producing reserves represent 33 percent (2013 – 51 percent) of the total proved and probable value.

FAIR MARKET VALUE OF UNDEVELOPED LAND

Perpetual's independent third party estimate of the fair market value of its undeveloped acreage by region for purposes of the net asset value calculation is based on past Crown land sale activity, adjusted for tenure and other considerations.  In West Central Alberta, no undeveloped land value was assigned where proved and/or probable undeveloped reserves have been booked.

Fair Market Value of Undeveloped Land


Net Acres

Value ($ millions)

$/Acre

North

614,762

$9.3

15.01

South

306,304

44.2

144.27

West Central

111,559

62.6

561.33

Oil Sands

327,979

48.3

147.38

Totals

1,360,604

$164.4

120.81

The fair market value of Perpetual's undeveloped land at year-end 2014, adjusted to remove the value of undeveloped lands with reserves assigned in West Central Alberta, is estimated by an external land consultant at $164.4 million, a decrease of $15.5 million relative to year-end 2013.

ABANDONMENT AND RECLAMATION COSTS

In addition to the abandonment cost estimates provided by McDaniel inclusive in their reserve assessment, Perpetual compiles annually a detailed internal estimate of the Corporation's total future asset retirement obligation based on net ownership interest in all wells, facilities and pipelines, including estimated costs to abandon the wells, facilities and pipelines and reclaim the sites, and the estimated timing of the costs to be incurred in future periods. Pursuant to this evaluation, the estimated cost of future asset retirement obligations related to Perpetual's proved and probable reserves and other liabilities, net of the estimated salvage value of facilities and equipment and discounted at eight percent is $72 million as at December 31, 2014.

The McDaniel Report includes an undiscounted amount of $47.7 million, including $41.6 million related to developed reserves and $6.1 million for undeveloped reserves, with respect to expected future well abandonment costs related specifically to proved and probable reserves and such amount is included in the values captioned "Total Proved and Probable Reserves" in the NPV of Reserves table (see "NPV OF RESERVES SUMMARY").

The following table presents the estimated future asset retirement obligations and estimated net salvage values at various discount rates:

Abandonment and Reclamation Costs







Discounted at

($ millions, net to Perpetual)

Undiscounted

5%

8%

10%

Total Estimated Future Abandonment and Reclamation Costs(1)

239

165

134

117

Salvage Value

(112)

(77)

(62)

(55)

Abandonment and Reclamation Costs, net of Salvage

127

88

72

62

Well Abandonment Costs for Developed

Reserves included in McDaniel Report

(42)

(29)

(24)

(21)

Estimate of Additional Future Abandonment 

and Reclamation Costs, net of Salvage(2)

85

59

48

41

(1)        Estimated internally in accordance with NI 51-101 for existing wells, pipelines and facilities.
(2)        Future abandonment and reclamation costs not included in the McDaniel Report, net of salvage value.

NET ASSET VALUE ("NAV")

The following net asset value table shows what is normally referred to as a "produce-out" NAV calculation under which the Corporation's reserves would be produced at forecast future prices and costs. The value is a snapshot in time and is based on various assumptions including commodity prices and foreign exchange rates that vary over time. It should not be assumed that the NAV represents the fair market value of Perpetual's shares. The calculations below do not reflect the value of the Corporation's prospect inventory to the extent that the prospects are not recognized within the NI 51-101 compliant reserve assessment, except as they are valued through the estimate of the fair market value of undeveloped land.

Pre-tax NAV at December 31, 2014(1)










Discounted at

($ millions, except as noted)

Undiscounted

5%

8%

10%

Total Proved and Probable Reserves(2)

$1,467

$970

$782

$685

Fair Market Value of Undeveloped Land(3)

164

164

164

164

Warwick Gas Storage(4)

25

25

25

25

Net Bank Debt(1,5)

(23)

(23)

(23)

(23)

Convertible Debentures

(35)

(35)

(35)

(35)

Senior Notes

(275)

(275)

(275)

(275)

Estimate of Additional Future Abandonment

and Reclamation Costs(6)

(85)

(59)

(48)

(41)

Hedge Book(7)

9

9

9

9

NAV

$1,247

$776

$599

$509

Shares Outstanding (million) – basic

150

150

150

150

NAV per Share ($/Share)

$8.31

$5.17

$3.99

$3.39

(1)


Financial information is per Perpetual's 2014 preliminary unaudited consolidated financial statements.

(2)


Reserve values per McDaniel Report as at December 31, 2014.

(3)


Independent third party estimate, excludes undeveloped land in West Central Alberta with reserves assigned.

(4)


Reflects 30% interest in Warwick Gas Storage at carrying amount.

(5)


Includes bank debt, net of working capital.

(6)


Amounts are in addition to amounts in the McDaniel report for future well abandonment costs, net of salvage value, related to developed reserves. See "ABANDONMENT AND RECLAMATION COSTS".

(7)


Hedging adjustments as at December 31, 2014 relative to McDaniel price forecast.

The above evaluation includes future capital expenditure expectations required to bring undeveloped reserves recognized by McDaniel that meet the criteria for booking under NI 51-101 on production. The fair market value of undeveloped land does not reflect the value of the Company's extensive prospect inventory which is anticipated to be converted into reserves and production over time through future capital investment.

FINDING AND DEVELOPMENT COSTS

In 2014, Perpetual closed several disposition transactions which resulted in total net proceeds of $92.6 million. Transactions included the monetization of gas over bitumen financial solution for $21.3 million, the disposition of undeveloped land and non-core heavy oil assets at Mannville, as well as the disposition of a gross overriding royalty related to producing wells (the "Producing Royalty") at East Edson as part of the East Edson joint venture (the "East Edson JV"). As part of the East Edson JV, an additional $70 million of capital was placed in escrow by the JV partner to fund East Edson development activities and earn an additional gross overriding royalty at East Edson (the "Drilling Royalty"). Minor acquisition activity of $1.0 million involved primarily the acquisition of undeveloped land in the Greater Edson area. Proceeds from the monetization of GOB royalty credits have been excluded in the calculation of FD&A costs as no reserves were associated with these transactions.

Perpetual's 2014 exploration and development ("E&D") capital spending program included the drill, complete and tie-in of 37 (26.7 net) wells.  In addition, facilities spending included the West Edson facility expansion to double the plant capacity to 60 MMcf/d (30 MMcf/d net) and $14.0 million of costs related to site preparation and purchase of equipment for the new East Edson gas plant which is anticipated to start-up in the third quarter of 2015. Further, capital spending in eastern Alberta included waterflood projects in Mannville to increase recoveries from heavy oil pools, as well as recompletion and facilities projects in our eastern Alberta shallow gas operations, An additional $69.4 million was drawn from escrow funds for spending on behalf of our East Edson JV partner for seismic and drilling, completion and tie-in operations related to 12 (12.0 net) additional new wells.

2014 Capital Spending(1)


Exploration and Development ("E&D") Capital Expenditures

2014

($ millions)

West Central Liquids-Rich Gas(2)

$82.0

Mannville Heavy Oil

24.5

Shallow Gas

8.3

Panny Pilot

1.7

Total Perpetual E&D Capital Spending(3)

116.5

Acquisitions, net of Dispositions(4)

(70.4)

Perpetual 2014 Capital Spending

$46.1

(1)        Financial information is per Perpetual's 2014 preliminary unaudited consolidated financial statements.
(2)        Excludes Perpetual operated capital spending funded by East Edson partner escrow funds.
(3)        Excludes corporate assets and abandonment and reclamation spending.
(4)        Excludes $21.3 million proceeds received on monetization of GOB royalty credits which did not include reserves.

Under NI 51-101, the methodology to be used to calculate F&D costs includes incorporating changes in FDC required to bring the proved undeveloped and probable reserves to production. Changes in forecast FDC occur annually as a result of development activities, acquisitions and disposition activities, undeveloped reserve revisions and capital cost estimates that reflect the independent evaluator's best estimate of what it will cost to bring the proved and probable undeveloped reserves on production.

The following table summarizes Perpetual's F&D cost after the inclusion of changes in FDC. F&D costs, including changes in FDC, were $11.14 per boe on a proved and probable basis ($13.76 per boe proved) in 2014.  Incorporating acquisitions, net of dispositions, Perpetual's FD&A cost, including the change in FDC were $9.77 per BOE on a proved and probable basis ($11.43 per boe proved) in 2014.

2014 F&D and FD&A Costs(1)



($ millions except as noted)

Proved

Proved & Probable

F&D Costs, including FDC



Exploration and Development Capital Expenditures

$116.5

$116.5

Total Change in FDC

302.9

455.2

Total F&D Capital, Including Change in FDC

$419.4

$571.7

Reserve Additions, Including Revisions – MMboe

30.5

51.3

F&D Costs, including FDC – $/boe

$13.76

$11.14

FD&A Costs, including FDC



Exploration and Development Capital Expenditures

$116.5

$116.5

Dispositions, net of Acquisitions

(70.4)

(70.4)

Total Change in FDC

298.3

448.2

Total FD&A Capital, Including Change in FDC

$344.4

$494.3

Reserve Additions, including revisions – MMboe

30.5

51.3

Dispositions, net of Acquisitions - MMboe

(0.4)

(0.7)

FD&A Costs, including FDC – $/boe

$11.43

$9.77

(1)        Financial information is per Perpetual's 2014 preliminary unaudited consolidated financial statements.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

Perpetual will release its 2014 annual audited financial statements and management's discussion and analysis ("MD&A") on or about March 4, 2015.

Uncertainties in Estimating Reserves

There are numerous uncertainties inherent in estimating quantities of crude oil, natural gas and NGL reserves and the future funds flows attributed to such reserves. The reserve and associated funds flow information set forth above are estimates only. In general, estimates of economically recoverable crude oil, natural gas and NGL reserves and the future net funds flows therefrom are based upon a number of variable factors and assumptions, such as historical production from the properties, production rates, ultimate reserve recovery, timing and amount of capital expenditures, marketability of oil and natural gas, royalty rates, the assumed effects of regulation by governmental agencies and future operating costs, all of which may vary materially. For those reasons, estimates of the economically recoverable crude oil, NGL and natural gas reserves attributable to any particular group of properties, classification of such reserves based on risk of recovery and estimates of future net revenues associated with reserves prepared by different engineers, or by the same engineers at different times, may vary. The Company's actual production, revenues, taxes and development and operating expenditures with respect to its reserves will vary from estimates thereof and such variations could be material.

Unaudited financial information 

Certain financial and operating information included in this press release for the quarter and year-ended December 31, 2014, such as capital expenditures, FD&A costs, funds flow, the carrying amount of Perpetual's investment in Warwick Gas Storage and net debt are based on estimated unaudited financial results for the quarter and year then ended, and are subject to the same limitations as discussed under "Forward-Looking Information". These estimated amounts may change upon the completion of audited financial statements for the year-ended December 31, 2014 and changes could be material.

BOE Equivalents

Perpetual's aggregate proved and probable reserves are reported in barrels of oil equivalent (boe). Boe may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. In accordance with NI 51-101 a boe conversion ratio for natural gas of 6 Mcf: 1 boe has been used, which is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not necessarily represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. As the value ratio between natural gas and crude oil based on the current prices of natural gas and crude oil is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value.

Forward-Looking Information 

Certain information regarding Perpetual in this news release including management's assessment of future plans and operations may constitute forward-looking information or statements under applicable securities laws. The forward looking information includes, without limitation, anticipated amounts and allocation of capital spending; statements pertaining to cash flow levels, self-funding, future development and capital efficiencies; statements regarding estimated production and timing thereof; prospective drilling locations, forecast average production; completions and development activities; infrastructure expansion and construction; estimated FDC required to convert proved and probable non-producing and undeveloped reserves to proved producing reserves; anticipated effect of commodity prices on reserves; estimates of gross recoverable gas sales; estimated net asset value; prospective oil and natural gas liquids production capability; projected realized natural gas prices and funds flow; projected ending 2014 net debt; estimated asset retirement obligations; anticipated effect of commodity prices on future development capital and reserves; commodity prices and foreign exchange rates; and gas price management. Various assumptions were used in drawing the conclusions or making the forecasts and projections contained in the forward-looking information contained in this press release, which assumptions are based on management's analysis of historical trends, experience, current conditions and expected future developments pertaining to Perpetual and the industry in which it operates as well as certain assumptions regarding the matters outlined above. Forward-looking information is based on current expectations, estimates and projections that involve a number of risks, which could cause actual results to vary and in some instances to differ materially from those anticipated by Perpetual and described in the forward-looking information contained in this press release. Undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking information, which is not a guarantee of performance and is subject to a number of risks or uncertainties, including without limitation those described under "Risk Factors" in Perpetual's MD&A for the year-ended December 31, 2013 and those included in other reports on file with Canadian securities regulatory authorities which may be accessed through the SEDAR website (www.sedar.com) and at Perpetual's website (www.perpetualenergyinc.com). Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of risk factors is not exhaustive. Forward-looking information is based on the estimates and opinions of Perpetual's management at the time the information is released and Perpetual disclaims any intent or obligation to update publicly any such forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, other than as expressly required by applicable securities law.

SOURCE Perpetual Energy Inc.

For further information: Perpetual Energy Inc., Suite 3200, 605 - 5 Avenue SW Calgary, Alberta, Canada T2P 3H5, Telephone: 403 269-4400, Fax: 403 269-4444, Email: info@perpetualenergyinc.com; Susan L. Riddell Rose, President and Chief Executive Officer; Cameron R. Sebastian, Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer

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