ST-JOHN'S, Nov. 7, 2012 /CNW/ - Export Development Canada's (EDC)
forecast for Newfoundland's export growth calls for a rebound of 6 per
cent in 2013 after a 5 per cent decline this year.
"Newfoundland and Labrador exports faltered in 2012 on lower crude oil
production, but as capacity comes back on line the energy sector will
drive a large gain next year," said Peter Hall, Chief Economist, EDC.
"Growth will be broadly-based in 2013, with metals, the fishery and the
forestry sectors all contributing to the rebound in exports. With
exports accounting for 37 per cent of Newfoundland GDP, the future is
indeed bright if the province continues to diversify its sales markets
at the same pace as in the last 5 years."
Since 2007, the province's share of exports to emerging markets has more
than doubled from 7 per cent to 16 per cent in 2011. This rate of
export diversification is among the best in Canada.
"Newfoundland's trend-defying increase in exporting companies, from 178
in 1999 to 195 in 2010, and superior trade diversification suggest
robust export performance as the U.S. recovery pulls the world into the
next growth cycle," said Hall.
Newfoundland's key international export sectors are energy, industrial
goods and the fishery, which together account for nearly 98 per cent of
the value of the province's total international sales.
The energy sector is dominant, making up two-thirds of provincial
exports. EDC expects energy exports to grow by 8 per cent next year
after a decline of 9 per cent in 2012. "Energy prices are weaker, but a
U.S.-led global recovery will ensure that near-term volume demand is
solid," said Hall.
Exports of metals and chemicals amount to 25 per cent of the province's
total exports, and is forecast to grow by 1 per cent next year,
following a 7 per cent gain in 2012. The outlook for 2013 is driven
mainly by higher volumes, as metal prices have tracked downwards and
are expected to soften further next year. Foreign sales of iron ore
will continue to build as a result of ramped-up production at IOC and
Labrador Iron Mines over the forecast horizon. Prospects beyond 2013
remain bright, thanks to significant investment by New Millennium
Capital Corporation and Tata Steel.
The agri-food sector makes up 7 per cent of the province's total
exports, and will see a partial 4 per cent recovery next year following
a 9 per cent decline this year. Dominated by seafood, the agri-food
sector is bearing the brunt of weak crab prices and lower quotas in
2012, but a recovery is expected in 2013.
The balance of the province's exports consist of a broad mix of goods,
including forestry, M&E, aerospace and beverages, which are shipped by
numerous small and medium-sized companies. Apart from forestry, these
sectors have experienced significant export growth this year and an
additional, modest acceleration is expected next year.
EDC's semi-annual Global Export Forecast addresses the latest global
export conditions including perspectives on interest rates, exchange
rates as well as export strategies to help Canadian companies minimize
risk. It also analyzes a range of risks for which exporters should be
prepared. The forecast is available on EDC's website at: http://www.edc.ca/gef.
EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial
solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their
international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by
more than 7,700 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to
200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining and
a recognized leader in financial reporting and economic analysis.
SOURCE: Export Development Canada
For further information:
Export Development Canada
Tel: (613) 598-2904
Blackberry: email@example.com / (613) 291-1276