New Flyer Announces Second Quarter 2017 Orders and Backlog

WINNIPEG, July 13, 2017 /CNW/ - (TSX:NFI) New Flyer Industries Inc. (the "Company"), the largest transit bus and motor coach manufacturer and parts distributor in North America, announced its order activity and backlog update for the 13-week period ended July 2, 2017 ("Q2 2017").

The order and delivery activity and backlog for Q2 2017 reported in this release includes activity for heavy-duty transit buses manufactured by the Company's subsidiaries, New Flyer Industries Canada ULC and New Flyer of America Inc. (together, "New Flyer"), and motor coaches manufactured by its subsidiaries, Motor Coach Industries Limited and Motor Coach Industries,  Inc. (together, "MCI").

The order and delivery activity and backlog as reported excludes pre-owned motor coaches.  Year-over-year comparisons reported in this release, compare Q2 2017 to the period ended July 3, 2016 ("Q2 2016"). 

Deliveries, Order Activity, and Option Expiry

The Company delivered 991 equivalent units ("EUs") in Q2 2017, an increase of 79 EUs compared to Q2 2016 and an increase of 99 EUs over the first fiscal quarter of 2017 ("Q1 2017"). Total bus and coach inventory at July 2, 2017 was 534 EUs, a decrease of 13 EUs from the previous quarter.

The Company's new transit bus and coach orders (firm and options) in Q2 2017 totaled 958 EUs.  Order activity in the period included:

  • New firm orders for 888 EUs (valued at $448.7 million
  • New option orders for 70 EUs (valued at $31.4 million)
  • 389 EUs of Options were converted to firm orders (valued at $189.1 million)


New Orders
in Quarter
(Firm and Option
EUs)

LTM New Orders
(Firm and Option
EUs)

Option EUs
Converted
in Quarter

Option EUs
Converted
LTM

Q2 2016

1,428

4,865

597

1,815

Q3 2016

585

4,317

288

1,890

Q4 2016

1,522

4,594

597

2,064

Q1 2017

708

4,243

218

1,700

Q2 2017

958

3,773

389

1,492

 

The Company's last twelve months ("LTM") Book-to-Bill ratio (defined as new firm and option orders divided by deliveries) was 103% and has been greater than 100% for 17 of the last 18 quarters, demonstrating overall growth in the Company's total backlog.

In addition, 2,055 EUs of new firm and option orders were pending from customers at the end of the period, where approval of the award to the Company had been made by the customer's board, council, or commission, as applicable, but purchase documentation had not yet been received by the Company and therefore not yet included in the backlog. 

The majority of public transit contracts have a term of five years. The table below shows the number of option EUs that have either expired or been exercised annually over the past five years, as well as the current backlog of options that will expire each year if not exercised. 

 In EUs

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

A) Options Expired

1,094

965

504

550

69






B) Options Exercised

601

1,149

1,339

2,064

607






C) Current Options by
year of expiry





430

990

1,180

1,297

2,239

177

D) Conversion rate %
= B/ (A+B)

35%

54%

73%

79%

90%






 

Total Backlog and 2017 Production

At the end of Q2 2017, the Company's total backlog was 9,901 EUs (valued at $5.04 billion) compared to 9,984 EUs (valued at $5.09 billion) at the end Q1 2017, and 10,010 EUs (valued at $5.24 billion) at the end of Q2 2016.

The Company's backlog consists of transit buses, and motor coaches primarily for public customers.  Buses incorporating clean propulsion systems (such as natural gas, diesel-electric hybrid, electric-trolley, and battery-electric) represent approximately 59% of the total backlog.  Zero-emission buses (battery-electric, fuel-cell and electric-trolley) represent approximately 5.9% of total backlog.

Total Backlog

Firm Order (EUs)    

Options (EUs)

Total (EUs)

Ending backlog at Q1 2017

New orders in Q2 2017
Options exercised in Q2 2017

Deliveries in Q2 2017

Cancelled/expired options in Q2 2017

3,302

888

389

(991)

-

6,682

70

(389)

-

(50)

9,984

958

-

(991)

(50)

Ending Backlog at Q2 2017

3,588

6,313

9,901

 

The Company's master production schedule combined with current backlog and orders anticipated to be awarded by customers under new procurements is expected to enable the Company to deliver approximately 3,750 EUs in fiscal 2017. Production rates vary from quarter to quarter due to product mix and award timing.

Market Demand

The Company's Bid Universe metric reports active public sector competitions in Canada and the United States, and provides an overall indicator of active bid activity and expected heavy-duty transit bus and motor coach market demand.  It is a point-in-time snapshot of: (i) EUs in active competitions, defined as all requests for proposals received and in process of review plus bids submitted and awaiting customer action, and (ii) management's forecast based on public customer projection of expected EUs to be placed out for competition over the next five years.

At the end of Q2 2017 the number of active EUs was 8,105 EUs and total Bid Universe was 22,271 EUs. 


Bids in

Process

(EUs)

Bids

Submitted

(EUs)

Total Active
(EUs)

Forecast New

Procurements

over next 5 Years

(EUs)

Total Bid

Universe

(EUs)

Q1 2016

1,750

5,536

7,286

15,632

22,918

Q2 2016

1,407

2,791

4,198

15,134

19,332

Q3 2016

3,474

3,123

6,597

17,138

23,735

Q4 2016

1,984

4,616

6,600

14,538

21,138

Q1 2017

2,424

5,660

8,084

14,060

22,144

Q2 2017

1,253

6,852

8,105

14,166

22,271

 

Procurement of transit buses and motor coaches by the public sector is typically accomplished through formal multi-year contracts, while procurement by the private sector is typically through transactional sales.  As a result, the Company does not publish a bid universe metric for private sector buses and motor coaches.

Management continues to expect that transit bus and motor coach procurement activity by public transit agencies throughout the U.S. and Canada should remain robust based on an aging fleet, improved overall economic conditions, expected customer fleet replacement plans, and active or anticipated procurements.  Management also expects stable private sector demand for motor coaches through 2017 given healthy market dynamics including the economy, travel trends, and credit markets. 

Aftermarket

Total shipments by the Company's aftermarket business for Q2 2017 decreased by 3.3% compared to the previous quarter, and decreased by 6.0% compared to Q2 2016.

New gross orders received in Q2 2017 increased by 4.2% compared to the previous quarter, while decreasing by 5.8% compared to Q2 2016.

Surveys and interviews with a number of large customers indicate a combination of parts orders and sales effects ranging from: inventory reduction objectives, budgetary constraints and fleet modernization impacts.

NOTE: All dollar amounts are stated in U.S. currency based on an exchange rate of U.S. $1.00 = CAD $ 1.2977 to calculate the value of the Canadian contracts in this release.

About the Company

The Company employs over 5,400 team members and is North America's largest transit bus and motor coach manufacturer and parts distributor with fabrication, manufacturing, distribution and service centers in Canada and the United States.

Through its Canadian and U.S. subsidiaries, New Flyer Industries Canada ULC and New Flyer of

America Inc., the Company is North America's heavy-duty transit bus leader and offers the industry's best selling product line (Xcelsior®)), incorporating the broadest range of drive systems available, including: clean diesel, natural gas, diesel-electric hybrid, electric-trolley and battery-electric. New Flyer actively supports over 44,000 heavy-duty transit buses (New Flyer, NABI and Orion) currently in service.

Through its Canadian and U.S. subsidiaries, Motor Coach Industries Limited and Motor Coach Industries, Inc., the Company is the leader in motor coaches in Canada and the U.S., offering the MCI J4500, which is the industry's best-selling intercity coach for 11 consecutive years, and the MCI D-Series, the industry's best-selling coach in North American history. MCI is also the exclusive distributor of Daimler's SETRA models S417 and S407 in the United States and Canada. MCI actively supports over 28,000 motor coaches currently in service and offers 24-hour roadside assistance 365 days a year.

The Company also operates North America's most comprehensive aftermarket parts organization providing support for all types of transit buses and motor coaches. All buses and coaches are supported by an industry-leading comprehensive warranty, service and support network.

Further information is available on the Company's websites at www.newflyer.com and www.mcicoach.com.  The common shares of the Company are traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol NFI.

Forward-Looking Statements

This press release may contain forward-looking statements relating to expected future events and financial and operating results of the Company that involve risks and uncertainties. Although the forward-looking statements contained in this press release are based upon what management believes to be reasonable assumptions, investors cannot be assured that actual results will be consistent with these forward-looking statements, and the differences may be material. Actual results may differ materially from management expectations as projected in such forward-looking statements for a variety of reasons, including market and general economic conditions and economic conditions of and funding availability for customers to purchase buses and to purchase parts or services, customers may not exercise options to purchase additional buses, the ability of customers to suspend or terminate contracts for convenience and the other risks and uncertainties discussed in the materials filed with the Canadian securities regulatory authorities and available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. Due to the potential impact of these factors, the Company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless required by applicable law.

SOURCE New Flyer Industries Inc.

For further information: Jon Koffman, Investor Relations, Tel: 204-224-6672

RELATED LINKS
http://www.newflyer.com

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