MONCTON, NB, Nov. 6, 2012 /CNW/ - Export Development Canada's (EDC)
forecast for New Brunswick export growth calls for a rebound of 6 per
cent in 2013 after a 1 per cent decline this year.
"A surge in U.S. homebuilding will bring long-awaited revival to New
Brunswick's forestry sector. Higher prices for natural gas and seafood
products will further boost overall export growth," said Peter Hall,
Chief Economist, EDC. "With 40 per cent of the province's GDP coming
from exports, international sales are a pillar of the province's
economy, and there are real opportunities brewing in the imminent U.S.
recovery and fast-growing emerging markets."
The province's share of exports to emerging markets grew only marginally
in the past 5 years, increasing from 5 per cent in 2007 to 7 per cent
in 2011. At first glance, this rate of diversification is among the
lowest in Canada. However, when you exclude the energy sector, exports
to emerging markets grew from 17 per cent in 2007 to 22 per cent in
"Tough conditions in the U.S. market have led exporters to
non-traditional export markets over the past decade. As this
fast-growing share of trade increases, export growth potential will
rise over time," said Hall.
New Brunswick's key international export sectors are energy, forestry
and agri-food, which together account for nearly 90 per cent of the
value of the province's total international sales.
The energy sector generates approximately 72 per cent of New Brunswick's
total exports. EDC expects energy exports to grow by 7 per cent next
year after a decline of 4 per cent this year. Despite weaker oil prices
in 2013, energy exports will receive a boost from the partial recovery
of natural gas prices from their 33% plunge in 2012. The reopening of
the Point Lepreau nuclear power plant and stronger demand linked to
growing U.S. economic activity will add to this outlook. New
Brunswick's shale gas potential remains a key to future energy sector
New Brunswick's forestry sector accounts for more than 10 per cent of
the province's total exports, and is forecast to grow by 12 per cent
next year, following a 1 per cent gain in 2012. Wood products exports
will receive a significant boost from the positive momentum in U.S.
housing, with dwelling starts expected to rise nearly 40 per cent in
2013. At the same time, North American producers of containerboard and
supercalendered paper are in the midst of pushing through higher
prices. The expected improvement in the U.S. economy will support
demand fundamentals for those products, which will shore up the
province's paper sales.
At 9 per cent of exports, the agri-food sector is also an important
exporter. Growth is expected to reach 6 per cent next year after a 12
per cent jump this year. With prices improving, sales of seafood
products will rise further in 2013. Cranberry production remains
relatively small but will continue to increase quickly with the opening
of the Ocean Spray bog.
The closure of Brunswick Mine in 2013 will soften exports of industrial
goods next year. However, the 12 per cent decline will be held in check
by new projects or planned production expansions, led by PotashCorp
Sussex mine, and to a lesser extent Halfmile, Mount Pleasant and
EDC's semi-annual Global Export Forecast addresses the latest global
export conditions including perspectives on interest rates, exchange
rates as well as export strategies to help Canadian companies minimize
risk. It also analyzes a range of risks for which exporters should be
prepared. The forecast is available on EDC's website at: http://www.edc.ca/gef.
EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial
solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their
international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by
more than 7,700 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to
200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining and
a recognized leader in financial reporting and economic analysis.
SOURCE: Export Development Canada
For further information:
Export Development Canada
Tel: (613) 598-2904
Blackberry: email@example.com / (613) 291-1276