TORONTO, June 12, 2012 /CNW/ - After a disappointing 2011, Manitoba's
economic growth is expected to bounce back in 2012, according to the
latest RBC Economics Provincial Outlook issued today. The provincial economy is on track to see growth of 3.1
per cent this year, as agricultural growing conditions return to normal
and manufacturing benefits from a strengthening U.S. economy.
"The key underlying factor for Manitoba's economy this year will be a
return to better growing conditions, which in turn should boost
agricultural production by about 20 per cent for the year," said Craig
Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist, RBC. "After the
double digit declines we've seen over the past two years, when
agricultural activity was hampered by adverse growing conditions, this
strong increase will be a welcome relief to the province."
The Outlook also notes that, with the U.S. economy projected to
strengthen, Manitoba's manufacturing sector will return to positive
growth, rising by 3.0 per cent in 2012 and 4.0 per cent in 2013. More
explicitly, aerospace and machinery exports are expected to gain from
increased business investment south of the border. Construction
spending in Manitoba is also anticipated to recover in 2012, rising 2.0
per cent after a decline in 2011.
RBC's forecast assumes that the global recovery will continue, despite
the external risks surrounding the European sovereign debt issue. This
will keep demand for Manitoba's natural resource commodities strong,
with attendant upward pressure on prices, and will drive activity in
the provincial base metal mining sector this year and next.
The pace of Manitoba's growth in 2012 is generally expected to be
maintained in 2013, with overall GDP rising to 3.0 per cent. In
addition, signs of recovery in employment growth earlier this year bode
well for a strengthening in overall output.
The RBC Economics Provincial Outlook assesses the provinces according to
economic growth, employment growth, unemployment rates, retail sales,
housing starts and consumer price indices. The full report and
provincial details are available online as of 8 a.m. ET today at rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/provfcst.pdf.
For further information:
Craig Wright, RBC Economics Research, 416 974-7457
Robert Hogue, RBC Economics Research, 416 974-6192
Elyse Lalonde, Corporate Communications, RBC Capital Markets 416 842-5635