Connacher Reports Year-End 2016 Reserves

CALGARY, Feb. 21, 2017 /CNW/ - Connacher Oil and Gas Limited ("Connacher" or the "Company") announces its year-end reserves as of December 31, 2016, as evaluated by GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd. ("GLJ"), independent qualified reserves evaluators.

Proved producing reserves increased by 7 million barrels (gross) to 14.7 million barrels (gross). The net present value of future net revenue before income taxes (discounted at ten per cent) ("10% PV") of the proved producing reserves increased to $57 million from -$11.5 million last year. Proved plus probable producing reserves were relatively unchanged. The 10% PV of the proved plus probable producing reserves increased by $113 million to $147 million.

Estimated proved ("1P") bitumen reserves totaled approximately 216 million barrels (gross), an increase of one per cent over year-end 2015 volumes. For the first time since 2010 the 10% PV of the 1P bitumen reserves increased, due to the near term improvement in the GLJ price forecast, as well as a decrease (13%) in operating expense. The 10% PV of 1P bitumen reserves has increased by $61 million to $901 million in 2016.

Proved plus probable ("2P") reserve volumes were approximately 447 million barrels of bitumen, up 2.5 per cent from a year earlier. The 10% PV of these 2P bitumen reserves decreased by $38 million to approximately $1.5 billion, due to a decrease in the long term GLJ price forecast.

Connacher's first SAGD project at Great Divide, Pod One, has been producing bitumen since late 2007, with commercial production commencing March 1, 2008. Algar commenced producing bitumen in August 2010 and commerciality was achieved October 1, 2010. Production from Great Divide since startup through December 31, 2016 has totaled approximately 34.8 million barrels of bitumen. Such amounts have been deducted from earlier estimates of proved reserves prior to the calculation of reserves as at December 31, 2016.

Unless otherwise stated, reserves refer to reserves of bitumen. Future net revenue is calculated after the deduction of forecast royalties, operating expenses, estimated future capital expenditures and well abandonment costs, but before corporate overhead or other indirect costs, including interest and income taxes, from forecast revenue. Certain amounts cited herein have been rounded for presentation purposes. The GLJ December 31, 2016 report ("Year-End 2016 Report") was prepared utilizing the GLJ January 1, 2017 price forecast, effective December 31, 2016. Readers are referred to the notes to the Summary Tables included in this press release for details regarding the price forecast used by GLJ. Earlier reports were prepared using the price forecasts then being applied by GLJ. Future net revenues disclosed herein do not represent fair market value. Also, estimations of reserves and future net revenue discussed in this press release constitute forward looking information. See "Forward Looking Information and Reserves Advisory" below.

The Year-End 2016 Report was prepared using assumptions and methodology guidelines outlined in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook ("COGE Handbook") and in accordance with National Instrument 51-101– Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities ("NI 51-101"). Comparisons provided herein with respect to Connacher's bitumen reserves and for 10% PV for December 31, 2015 are to estimates contained in the report, prepared by GLJ, with an effective date of December 31, 2015 ("Year-End 2015 Report").

Furthermore, additional information regarding Connacher's reserves and resources, including the Company's interest in the resources and the risks and the level of uncertainty associated with the recovery of the resources, can be found in the Company's annual information form ("AIF") dated March 29, 2016. The AIF can be accessed at www.sedar.com. The Company will be filing a Statement of Reserves Data and Other Oil and Gas Information later this year and prior to April 30, 2017, once it has completed the audit of its financial and operating results for the year-ended December 31, 2016 and has released them to the public.

Detailed information included in the Year-End 2016 Report regarding Connacher's bitumen reserves and associated present values are set forth in the tables below, including a comparison of year-end 2016 results to year-end 2015 results.

Summary Tables

Set out below is a summary of the bitumen reserves and the value of future net revenue of the Corporation as at December 31, 2016 as evaluated by GLJ in the Year-End 2016 Report. The pricing used in the forecast price evaluations is set forth in the notes to the tables.


BITUMEN RESERVE VOLUMES
BASED ON FORECAST PRICES AND COSTS(7)



Bitumen


Gross(1)


Net(1)

(Mbbl)


(Mbbl)

Proved Reserves





Producing(2)(4)

14,717


14,144







Proved Plus Probable Producing

21,388


20,498


Undeveloped(2)(5)

201,838


169,982

Total Proved(2)

216,555


184,127





Total Probable(3)

230,682


184,818





Total Proved Plus Probable(2)(3)

447,237


368,945

 

NET PRESENT VALUE SUMMARY
BASED ON FORECAST PRICES AND COSTS(7)



Net Present Value of Future Net Revenue Before Income Taxes Discounted %/Year ($MM)


0%


5%


10%


15%


20%

Proved Reserves





















Producing(2)(4)

14


44


57


63


64












Plus Probable Producing

136


149


147


139


130












Undeveloped(2)(5)

4,366


1,825


844


410


195











Total Proved(2)

4,380


1,868


901


473


259











Total Probable(3)

6,409


1,747


605


245


112











Total Proved Plus Probable(2)(3)

10,789


3,633


1,506


718


371











Figures in tables may not add due to rounding.

Notes:


(1)

"Gross Reserves" are the Corporation's working interest (operating or non-operating) share before deducting royalties and without including any royalty interests of the Corporation. "Net Reserves" are the Corporation's working interest (operating or non-operating) share after deduction of royalty obligations, plus the Corporation's royalty interests in reserves.

(2)

"Proved" reserves are those reserves that can be estimated with a high degree of certainty to be recoverable. It is likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the estimated proved reserves.

(3)

"Probable" reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than proved reserves. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the sum of the estimated proved plus probable reserves.

(4)

"Producing" reserves are those reserves that are expected to be recovered from completion intervals open at the time of the estimate.  These reserves may be currently producing or, if shut-in, they must have previously been on production, and the date of resumption of production must be known with reasonable certainty.

(5)

"Undeveloped" reserves are those reserves expected to be recovered from known accumulations where a significant expenditure (e.g., when compared to the cost of drilling a well) is required to render them capable of production.

(6)

The net present value of estimated future net revenues referred to herein should not be construed as the fair market value of estimated bitumen reserves attributable to Connacher's properties.

(7)

Pricing assumptions in the Year-End 2016 Report were as follows: US$/CDN$ exchange rate was 0.75 for 2017, unchanged from the Year-End 2015 Report. The following is the price forecast for the Year-End 2016 Report:

 




West Texas Intermediate

Brent Blend Crude Oil

Bitumen Wellhead



Bank of Canada

Crude Oil at Cushing
Oklahoma

(40 API, 0.3%S) at Edmonton

Bitumen








Oil Sands Inflation

Average Noon Rate

Current

Current

Current







Year

%

USD$/CAD$

USD$/bbl

CAD$/bbl

CAD$/bbl







2017

0

0.75

55.00

69.33

31.57







2018

2

0.78

59.00

72.26

35.14







2019

2

0.80

64.00

75.00

39.69







2020

2

0.83

67.00

76.36

41.50







2021

2

0.85

71.00

78.82

44.44







2022

2

0.85

74.00

82.35

47.56







2023

2

0.85

77.00

85.88

50.69







2024

2

0.85

80.00

89.41

53.80







2025

2

0.85

83.00

92.94

56.73







2026

2

0.85

86.05

95.61

60.01







2027

2

0.85

87.77

97.52

61.21







2028

2

0.85

89.53

99.47

62.43

 

Comparison of Reserves 2015/2016

BITUMEN GROSS RESERVES (Mbbl)



31-Dec-15


31-Dec-16

Proved Producing

7,783


14,717





Proved Plus Probable Producing

23,282


21,388





Total Proved Reserves (1P)

214,687


216,555





Probable

221,061


230,682





Proved Plus Probable Reserves (2P)

435,748


447,237





Note: The definitions of the respective types of reserves set forth in the notes to the Summary Tables above also apply to the above table.

 

10% PRESENT VALUE OF FUTURE NET REVENUE OF BITUMEN RESERVES
- BEFORE TAX ($MM)



31-Dec-15


31-Dec-16





Proved Producing

-11


57





Proved Plus Probable Producing

34


147





Total Proved Reserves (1P)

840


901





Probable

704


605





Proved Plus Probable Reserves (2P)

1,544


1,506





Note: The definitions of the respective types of reserves set forth in the notes to the Summary Tables above also apply to the above table.

 

Forward Looking Information and Reserves Advisory

This press release contains certain statements that constitute forward-looking statements under applicable securities legislation. All statements other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements. In some cases, forward looking statements can be identified by terminology such as "may", "will", "should", "expect", "plan", "anticipate", "believe", "estimate", "predict", "potential", "continue", or the negative of these terms or other comparable terminology. These statements are only as of the date of this document and the Company does not undertake to publicly update these forward looking statements except in accordance with applicable securities laws. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, estimated reserves and future net revenues associated therewith and the proposed timing of the release of the Company's Statement of Reserves Data and Other Oil and Gas Information for the year ended December 31, 2016. The forward-looking information is based on current expectations, estimates, projections and assumptions, which the Company believes are reasonable but which may prove to be incorrect and, therefore, such forward-looking statements should not be unduly relied upon. These forward-looking statements involve a number of known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results or performance to differ materially from those anticipated or any future results or performance expressed or implied herein. These risks, uncertainties and other factors relating to the Company include, but are not limited to, the level of indebtedness of the Company, the implementation and impact of obtaining any reorganization or restructuring of the assets, business and financial affairs of the Company, future co-operation of the creditors of the Company, the Company's ability to generate sufficient cash flow from operations or to obtain adequate financing to fund capital expenditures and working capital needs and to meet the Company's ongoing obligations during the Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act ("CCAA") process and thereafter, the ability to maintain relationships with suppliers, customers, employees, shareholders and other third parties in light of the Company's current liquidity situation and the CCAA proceedings, as well as risks associated with the oil and gas industry (e.g. operational risks in development, exploration and production delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures; the uncertainty of reserve estimates; the uncertainty associated with geological interpretations; the uncertainty of estimates and projections in relation to production, costs and expenses and health, safety and environmental risks), the risk of commodity price and foreign exchange rate fluctuations, risks associated with the implementation of new technology, risks associated with obtaining, maintaining and the timing of receipt of regulatory approvals, permits, and licenses, uncertainties relating to access to capital markets and the risk of volatile global economic conditions. Additional risks and uncertainties are described in the Company's Annual Information Form for the year ended December 31, 2015 which is filed on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.

This press release includes information pertaining to the reserves and the value of future net revenue of the Corporation as at December 31, 2016 and December 31, 2015 as evaluated by GLJ in the Year-End 2016 Report and the Year-End 2015 Report, respectively (together the "GLJ Reports"). Statements relating to reserves are deemed to be forward looking information, as they involve the implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions, that the reserves described exist in the quantities predicted or estimated, and can be profitably produced in the future. The GLJ Reports are based on a number of assumptions relating to factors such as initial production rates, production decline rates, ultimate recovery of reserves, timing and amount of capital expenditures, marketability of production, future prices of bitumen, operating costs, anticipated reductions in steam-oil ratios and operating costs as a result of installation of pumps in certain wells to improve productivity, well abandonment and salvage values, royalties and other government levies that may be imposed during the producing life of the reserves. Moreover, there is no assurance that the forecast price and cost assumptions contained in the GLJ Reports will be attained and variances could be material. The reserves estimates of Connacher's properties described herein are estimates only. The actual reserves on Connacher's properties may be greater or less than those calculated. The net present value of estimated future net revenues referred to herein should not be construed as the fair market value of estimated bitumen reserves attributable to Connacher's properties.

Due to the risks, uncertainties and assumptions inherent in forward looking information, prospective investors in the Company's securities should not place undue reliance on forward looking information. Forward looking information contained in this press release is made as of the date hereof and are subject to change. The Company assumes no obligation to revise or update forward looking information to reflect new circumstances, except as required by law.

About Connacher

Connacher is a Calgary-based in-situ oil sands developer, producer and marketer of bitumen. The Company holds a 100 per cent interest in approximately 447 million barrels of proved plus probable bitumen reserves and operates two SAGD facilities located on the Company's Great Divide oil sands leases near Fort McMurray, Alberta.

SOURCE Connacher Oil and Gas Limited

For further information: Merle Johnson, Chief Executive Officer; Jeff Beeston, Vice President of Finance and Interim Chief Financial Officer; Connacher Oil and Gas Limited, Phone: (403) 538-6201, Fax: (403) 538-6225, Suite 1040, 540 - 5th Avenue SW, Calgary, Alberta T2P 3G4, inquiries@connacheroil.com, www.connacheroil.com


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