OTTAWA, Nov. 19, 2012 /CNW/ - The Western provinces remain in the best
position to ride out the current global economic weakness, and Ontario
is seeing bright spots in export growth and business investment for
2013, according to The Conference Board of Canada's Provincial Outlook-Autumn 2012.
"Canada's economy is muddling through the second half of 2012 and into
2013. The weakness has been relatively broad-based across industries,
as the struggles of the global economy have hit home," said
Marie-Christine Bernard, Associate Director, Provincial Outlook. "Some
of the weakness is coming from the mining, oil, and gas extraction
sector. Most provinces are feeling the weight of lower commodity
For the most part, Western Canadian provinces have been relatively
shielded from the fiscal and economic troubles lingering in external
markets. The economies of Saskatchewan and Alberta in particular have
performed strongly, and their near-term prospects are more favourable
than those for the rest of the country. For both provinces, real
economic growth will remain at or above three per cent through 2014.
Development of the oil sands is expected to continue to drive economic
growth in Alberta, despite the recent slide in oil prices. Tight labour
markets - the unemployment rate is down to 4.5 per cent - have boosted
wages and consumer spending. Alberta is forecast to lead all provinces
in growth for the second consecutive year, with real GDP set to expand
by 3.4 per cent in 2012.
Capital expenditures in Saskatchewan's potash industry are accelerating,
putting the province on track to overtake Alberta in 2013 and 2014 as
the fastest-growing economy in the country.
Manitoba and British Columbia are also poised for solid growth in the
next two years. Coming off a tepid performance in 2012, British
Columbia is forecast to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2013 and at a similar
pace in 2014 - thanks to improving U.S. housing demand, solid
employment growth and rising consumer confidence.
Widespread gains in several industries and a strong year for agriculture
have put Manitoba on pace for robust growth of 2.5 per cent in 2012,
and growth is expected to exceed two per cent in each of the next two
Ontario's economy has withstood fiscal austerity at both the federal and
provincial levels of government, as well as global economic uncertainty
in 2012. A solid rebound in vehicle demand in the United States has
bolstered Ontario's manufacturing exports. Furthermore, businesses are
taking advantage of the strong dollar to invest in retooling their
operations. Although growth of only 1.8 per cent is expected in 2012,
Ontario's economy will pick up speed in the next two years.
Quebec and Atlantic Canada are barely growing this year, although modest
gains are expected in 2013 and 2014. A weak job market, combined with
tax hikes that squeezed consumers, and flat export growth curtailed
Quebec's economy to growth of just 0.9 per cent in 2012.
At 1.1 per cent, Prince Edward Island is the province with the highest
growth forecast for the Atlantic region in 2012. Nova Scotia's economy
is forecast to expand by just 0.6 per cent and growth in New Brunswick
will settle in at 0.5 per cent. The Newfoundland and Labrador economy
is expected to shrink in 2012, due to a slowdown in mining and oil and
gas production - although, excluding resource extraction, the province
is still doing well.
Link to publication: http://www.conferenceboard.ca/e-library/abstract.aspx?did=5210
SOURCE: CONFERENCE BOARD OF CANADA
For further information:
Brent Dowdall, Media Relations, Tel.: 613- 526-3090 ext. 448