OTTAWA, Sept. 17, 2012 /CNW/ - The Canadian Real Estate Association
(CREA) has updated its forecast for home sales activity via the
Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards
and Associations in 2012 and 2013.
Since CREA's last resale housing forecast, mortgage regulations were
tightened further, activity in Ontario softened, and the slowdown of
sales activity in British Columbia deepened. As a result of these
developments, CREA has lowered its forecast for Canadian home sales
this year and next. The national average price forecast has also been
reduced, reflecting an expected decrease in Ontario's and British
Columbia's provincial sales as a proportion of national activity.
British Columbia's share of national sales has declined further below
its long term average. Ontario's share of national sales has also retreated from elevated
levels, and is expected to hold near its long run average.
National resale housing activity is now forecast to rise by 1.9 per cent
to 466,900 units in 2012. Alberta is still expected to post the biggest
increase in activity, offsetting a sales decline in British Columbia.
In 2013, CREA forecasts that national sales activity will recede by 1.9
per cent to 457,800 units. This is a larger decline than was previously
forecast, reflecting the cumulative effects of previous and recent
changes to mortgage regulations, and anticipated interest rate
increases in the second half of 2013. Activity is expected to ease in
all provinces except Alberta and Manitoba, with Ontario registering the
Although revised downward, national sales in 2012 and 2013 are forecast
to remain roughly on par with the 10 year average, with 2012 coming in
slightly above and 2013 slightly below average.
"All real estate is local, so housing market prospects can and do differ
among regions and communities," said Wayne Moen, CREA President. "For
that reason, buyers and sellers should talk to their REALTOR® about the
housing market outlook where they live."
The national average home price is forecast to rise by just 0.6 per cent
to $365,000 in 2012, reflecting a strong start to the year for sales
and average price in Ontario but fewer expensive home sales in British
The national average price is expected to edge lower by one tenth of one
per cent to $364,500 in 2013, with Ontario and British Columbia
registering small price declines amid modest average price gains in
"Recent changes to mortgage regulations are likely to sideline some
potential first-time home buyers, particularly in some of Canada's
priciest housing markets," said Gregory Klump, CREA's Chief Economist.
"That's likely to result in slower momentum for resale housing
activity, with an increase in the amount of time it takes for move-up
buyers to sell their current home. Job growth is widely expected to
continue at a modest pace while interest rates remain on hold, so the
economic outlook is absent the factors that typically result in forced
sales and a dramatic swing in prices."
SOURCE: The Canadian Real Estate Association
For further information:
Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460