OTTAWA, June 26, 2014 /CNW/ - New research from The Conference Board of Canada's Saskatchewan Institute shows that Saskatoon stands to grow its total GDP by as much as 12.6 billion dollars over the next two decades, but it will depend upon several factors. The report presents a 20-year economic forecast for the Saskatoon region based on three scenarios.
Growing Saskatoon: Saskatoon's Regional Economic Map, reveals that the region's total real gross domestic product (GDP) could grow from $16.8 billion in 2013 to about $23 billion by 2035 in the pessimistic scenario, and to as much as $29.4billion in an optimistic scenario.
"Saskatoon has experienced significant growth over the past few years and will continue to grow as long as global demand for the province's resources remains high." said Diana MacKay, Director of the Saskatchewan Institute. "However, the pace at which Saskatoon's regional economy grows will remain linked to several other social and economic factors."
The new report forecasts three economic scenarios for the Saskatoon census metropolitan area based on the effects of provincial goods-producing industries, population growth and rates of investment in employment and infrastructure. Based on the region's 2013 GDP of $16.8 billion, the forecasted scenarios could generate the following results:
- Optimistic - 2.9 per cent average annual GDP growth, for a total GDP of $29.4 billion in 2035
- Average - 2.4 per cent average annual GDP growth for a total of $26.5 billion in 2035
- Pessimistic - 1.9 per cent average annual GDP growth for a total of $23.5 billion in 2035
- Saskatoon's total GDP is expected to rise by an average of 2.4 per cent annually over the next twenty years.
- The potential GDP gap between the optimistic and the pessimistic scenarios amounts to $5.83 billion by 2035.
The potential GDP gap between the optimistic (2.9 per cent) and the pessimistic (1.9 per cent) scenarios would amount to $5.83 billion by 2035. Potential GDP growth will largely be determined by:
- Global demand for Saskatchewan's natural resources;
- International and interprovincial migration;
- Aboriginal participation in the labour force;
- Regional investment in employment and infrastructure.
Growing Saskatoon: Saskatoon's Regional Economic Map was written in collaboration with the Saskatoon Regional Economic Development Authority (SREDA), an independent economic development agency that works with the City of Saskatoon, the Province of Saskatchewan, the surrounding communities and more than 150 private sector investors to build and grow the region's economy.
The Saskatchewan Institute is a major initiative of The Conference Board of Canada that focuses on issues relevant to Saskatchewan. It works with partners in Saskatchewan to produce research that will help public and private sector leaders sharpen their vision for Saskatchewan's future and find solutions to the challenges they need to address.
This publication is available to subscribers at www.e-library.ca
SOURCE: Conference Board of Canada
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