ATB Cormark Capital Markets Spring 2026 Energy Sector Survey Reveals Rising Confidence and Growth Focus Across Canadian Energy

• 95% of exploration and production companies (E&P) expect production growth over the next 12 months, while stronger crude prices, improved outlooks and rising investor confidence reshape the Canadian energy story in 2026.
• Energy services sentiment is improving, with 75% of services respondents expecting higher customer activity in 2026 and margins projected to improve over the next six months for the first time since fall 2023.
• Oil- and gas-weighted producers are both targeting roughly 6% production growth over the next year, as growth capex emerges as the top capital allocation priority for public E&Ps and public energy services companies.
• Federal energy policy remains the sector's top risk for the eighth consecutive survey. However, a larger minority of respondents now believe the Carney government will actively work to expand the Canadian energy sector.
• West Coast LNG expansion remains the industry's top long-term opportunity, but expectations for positive final investment decisions on LNG Canada Phase 2 and Ksi Lisims softened and with expected FID timing shifting further into the future.
• Investor sentiment strengthened, with 82% of buyside respondents becoming more bullish on energy over the past six months, 76% expecting Canadian energy equities to outperform the broader market, and 76% viewing the sector as undervalued or very undervalued.

CALGARY, AB, April 22, 2026 /CNW/ - ATB Cormark Capital Markets' Spring 2026 Energy Sector Survey (the "Energy Survey" or the "Survey") shows confidence is strengthening across the Canadian energy sector, with exploration and production (E&P) companies, energy services firms and institutional investors all reporting a more constructive outlook for the balance of 2026. Results point to stronger growth expectations, improving services activity and pricing, and materially more bullish investor sentiment than six months ago.

"Our spring 2026 survey points to a meaningful improvement in the outlook for the  Canadian energy sector compared with fall 2025. The shift in institutional investor views is particularly notable, with a much larger share of respondents becoming more bullish on energy and expecting Canadian energy equities to outperform the broader market over the next 12 months," said Darren Eurich, CEO, ATB Cormark Capital Markets. "While the sector continues to face important policy and infrastructure constraints, the results suggest investors are recognizing a stronger backdrop for Canadian energy companies than they did six months ago."

The spring 2026 survey gathered responses from 63 participants between March 18 and April 1, 2026, including 24 energy services companies, 22 E&P companies and 17 institutional investors.

Among E&P respondents, 95% expect production to grow over the next 12 months, up from 88% in the fall 2025 survey. On a production weighted-average basis, both oil- and gas-weighted producers expect production growth of roughly 6% over the next year. At the same time, 75% of energy services respondents expect customer activity levels to rise in 2026 compared with 2025, implying approximately 4% year-over-year activity growth, which aligns with E&P capital spending expectations.

Institutional investor sentiment also improved materially. Among buyside respondents, 82% said they had become more bullish on energy investments over the past six months, 76% expect Canadian energy equities to outperform the broader market over the next 12 months, and 76% view Canadian public energy equities as undervalued or very undervalued.

"The survey suggests the industry is entering 2026 with stronger underlying momentum. It points to expectations for higher field activity, broad-based production growth and improving energy services pricing and margins, with capital budgets still based on relatively conservative oil price assumptions," said Tim Monachello, Managing Director, ATB Cormark Capital Markets. "In that context, a prolonged period of elevated crude prices could provide meaningful tailwinds for Canadian activity levels, E&P production growth, corporate balance sheets and shareholder returns."

Key findings from the survey

Industry confidence improves across the board – The spring 2026 survey shows a clear improvement in outlook. E&P and energy services executives reported more positive views over the past three months, while institutional investors became increasingly constructive on Canadian energy equities. Energy services margin expectations also turned positive for the first time since fall 2023.

Growth emerges as the top 2026 priority – Canadian energy companies are placing greater emphasis on growth. Public E&Ps ranked growth capital spending as their top capital allocation priority, while public energy services companies also moved growth capital spending into the top spot. Energy services respondents expect activity levels to strengthen in 2026, and E&P exploration and development spending is projected to rise by roughly 4% year over year on a production-weighted basis.

Stronger crude prices create greater capital flexibility – With 2026 crude prices tracking above most producer budget assumptions, E&Ps indicated that incremental cash flow is most likely to be directed toward deleveraging and increased drilling and completions activity, followed by additional shareholder returns. A slight majority of institutional investors also said recent crude price strength tied to Middle East unrest has made them more willing to invest in Canadian energy equities.

Pipeline capacity constraints are becoming a larger concern – Pipeline capacity constraints ranked as the second most prominent medium-term risk facing the Canadian energy sector, up from third in the fall 2025 survey. Two-thirds of respondents with a view expect Canada to face crude pipeline capacity constraints before 2029. At the same time, perceived likelihood of a Keystone XL revival increased materially, now viewed as the most likely cancelled pipeline project to be revived.

West Coast LNG remains the sector's top long-term opportunity – West Coast LNG expansion remains the top-ranked medium- to long-term opportunity for the Canadian energy sector. Most respondents still expect positive final investment decisions for LNG Canada Phase 2 and Ksi Lisims LNG, although expectations for timing have shifted further into the future.

Federal policy remains the top risk, though views are moderating – For the eighth consecutive survey, federal energy and environmental policy ranked as the top risk facing the sector. That said, a larger minority of respondents now believe the Carney administration will actively work to expand the Canadian energy sector compared with the fall 2025 survey.

Oversupply concerns ease while ESG and transition spending continue to decline – The perceived risk from OPEC+ supply additions and global oversupply fell materially in the spring 2026 survey. Meanwhile, companies continue to scale back ESG disclosure and transition-related investment plans, with carbon capture and sequestration investment intentions falling to the lowest level in survey history.

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About ATB Cormark Capital Markets
ATB Cormark Capital Markets is a leading North American investment firm providing holistic corporate and capital markets advice and full-service financial solutions.

Following the acquisition of Cormark Securities Inc., the firm has further expanded its institutional reach, offering a premier research franchise and deep expertise in equity sales and trading. Serving clients across key growth sectors including energy, technology, mining and life sciences, ATB Cormark Capital Markets provides a comprehensive suite of services, including investment and corporate banking, risk management, and market-leading institutional insights.

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