MONTREAL, Dec. 12 /CNW/ - Earlier today Gareth Watson, ScotiaMcLeod
Equity Advisory Group moderated presentations by Warren Jestin, Senior
Vice-President and Chief Economist, Scotiabank and Vincent Delisle, Director
of Portfolio Strategy, Scotia Capital.
Mr. Jestin and Mr. Delisle discussed a number of topics related to the
current and future state of the Canadian economy. While the U.S. sub-prime
mortgage crisis and the flight of the loonie to parity with the U.S. dollar
have been grabbing the headlines, North American prospects are also being
driven by a number of powerful longer-term trends. Warren provided his views
about what these complex factors mean for Canada. Among his conclusions:
- The loonie will continue to fly high
- The Bank of Canada will lag the U.S. Fed in lowering rates and will
- Robust global demand will underpin energy and industrial commodities
- Growth will remain best in the West through the decade
"The retracement of the Canada-U.S. exchange rate over the past two weeks
is a clear indication that our currency has moved too far, too fast," said
Mr. Jestin. "However, looking through these wild gyrations, the underlying
economic fundamentals remain broadly supportive for the loonie and negative
for the greenback. Against this background, we expect the Canada-U.S. exchange
rate to average close to 1.05 over the next year."
Vincent's area of expertise is Portfolio Strategy and Equities. His
presentation focused on how Canadian investors can build their portfolios over
the next 12-18 months.
"Market volatility will extend through the first half of 2008 as earnings
estimates are revisited lower," said Mr. Delisle. "The Canadian dollar impact
on TSX earnings will also be a challenge."
Other points made by Mr Delisle include:
- Valuations remain attractive and equities should post 8% gains by
- The repricing of risk has translated into a flight-to-quality and a
lower cyclical bias is recommended
- Our December year-end targets (14500 for the TSX and 1575 for the
S&P500) will be biased higher once the Fed easing cycle is over
Highlights of Warren and Vincent's presentations are provided in a
special report, along with a print-out of their PowerPoint presentation, in
English and French. The presentations are archived and the reports are
available at www.scotiabank.com.
For further information:
For further information: Media contact: Bernard Boileau, Scotiabank
Public Affairs, Phone: (450) 420-4595 or firstname.lastname@example.org