NEW YORK, LONDON, TORONTO, Feb. 7 /CNW/ - India and China have the best prospects for economic growth over the
next 12 months, while Japan and Europe have a more negative outlook,
according to 461 finance and business leaders from around the world
responding to the latest RBC Capital Markets survey.
Respondents are also bearish about the United States, with nearly
two-thirds (65 percent) expecting the U.S. economy to grow at a slower
rate in the coming year than the previous decade's annualized rate of
2.7 percent. Specific to Canadian respondents, 40 percent said that
Canada's growth over the next year would exceed its average growth over
the past decade, while 33 percent said growth would slow. The rest said
Canada's growth rate would remain unchanged.
The third semi-annual RBC Capital Markets Global Survey, commissioned by
RBC Capital Markets and conducted by the Economist Intelligence Unit
(EIU), polled executives on their outlook for the global economy.
According to the survey, 77 percent of respondents believe that India's
prospects for economic growth over the coming year were better than
they had been the previous year, and 76 percent believe that China's
prospects are better. Africa and Russia, with 50 percent expecting
better prospects, also stood out. Only one-in-four executives polled
(25 percent) believe that Japan's prospects will be better in the next
year compared to last year.
When asked which regions will face worse economic prospects over the
coming 12 months, 32 percent of the executives surveyed cite Europe,
while 28 percent identify North America and 28 percent believe Japan
will face slower growth.
Concerns over sovereign debt and a desire for yield appear to be pushing
investors into emerging markets. Almost three-quarters of survey
respondents (73 percent) expect valuations to be higher in the major
Asian equity markets over the next 12 months, with the flow of funds
intensifying global imbalances. Two-thirds of executives polled also
expect the price of oil and the value of the Chinese renminbi to rise
over the next year, while the euro, the dollar and U.S. treasuries are
expected to weaken.
"In 2010, we saw emerging markets drive better-than-expected global
growth, and there are clear expectations for that trajectory to
continue," said Marc Harris, co-head, Global Research, RBC Capital
Markets. "We are likely to see not only a continued split between
developing and developed nations, but also splits within developed
regions, such as the U.S. and Europe, where the recovering U.S. economy
and sovereign debt crisis in the European Union are driving the
implementation of different policies."
The survey highlighted changing views from the same survey six months
earlier - namely, respondents are more discouraged about North
America's economy, yet more encouraged by the rest of the regional
economies around the world. When asked in May 2010 about prospects for
economic growth over the next year, 60 percent of respondents said
prospects were "better" for North America. However, by January 2011,
that number fell to 48 percent. At the same time, expectations improved
for Africa: in May, 40 percent saw prospects improving there, but by
January, that number increased to 50 percent. Expectations for improved
economic growth in the Middle East also increased from 41 percent in
May to 48 percent in January. Although Europe trailed in expectations
in January with 36 percent, this still represents a marked improvement
from the 27 percent of respondents who expected better prospects for
the continent in May. Similarly, expectations for positive performance
by the major European equity markets rose to 44 percent, from 38
percent in May.
The survey also revealed how the landscape is changing for global
currencies. Though four-in-five of executives polled (80 percent) said
they expect the U.S dollar to be the dominant global currency over the
next three years, the exact same share as the survey completed in May
2010, only 53 percent believe the dollar will be dominant in five
years, compared to 57 percent in the spring survey. While only four
percent of executives believe the Chinese renminbi will be the dominant
global currency in three years, 13 percent believe it will be in five
years. Additionally, a clear majority of executives (73 percent)
believe there is a possibility that oil will be priced in a currency
other than dollars over the next three years.
"While most respondents think that conditions will improve in almost
every major region of the world, they also believe that the recovery
will take place at different speeds in different places," said Richard
E. Talbot, co-head, Global Research, RBC Capital Markets. "The timing
of recovery is uncertain and investors will have to proceed cautiously,
carefully evaluating each market's prospects."
About the survey
RBC Capital Markets commissioned the Economist Intelligence Unit to
survey 461 senior executives from around the globe (North America [38
percent], Western Europe [38 percent], Asia Pacific [14 percent] and
Rest of the World [nine percent]), including both clients and
non-clients of the firm, on their outlook for the future of capital
markets. The survey was completed in January 2011. The respondents
included 211 senior executives from commercial and investment banks,
hedge funds, asset managers, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds,
institutional investors and private equity firms and 250 executives
from non-financial companies active in the global capital markets.
About RBC Capital Markets
RBC Capital Markets is the corporate and investment banking arm of RBC
and is consistently ranked among the top 15 investment banks globally.
With over 6,000 employees, RBC Capital Markets is active globally in
fixed income, foreign exchange, infrastructure finance, ECM, metals,
mining and energy. Working with clients through operations in Asia and
Australasia, the UK and Europe and in every major North American city,
RBC Capital Markets provides products and services from 75 offices in
15 countries. For more information, please visit www.rbccm.com.
Note to Editors:
For a copy of the research paper related to the survey, please follow
the link below: http://www.rbccm.com/about/file-552024.pdf
For further information:
|Europe and Asia: ||RBC: Louisa Fairman - 44 (0)20 7029 7821|
Greentarget: Dafina Grapci-Penney-- 44 (0)20 7680 5052
| || |
|United States: ||RBC: Kait Conetta - (212) 428-6409|
Sanam Alaghband - (212) 618-5589
| || |
|Canada: ||RBC: Gillian McArdle - (416) 974-5506|