Domestic strength offsets external challenges
TORONTO, Oct. 12 /CNW/ - Canada's economy is expected to grow by 2.8 per
cent in the final half of 2007 and 2.5 per cent next year, according to the
latest economic forecast from RBC.
"Despite recent financial market volatility, Canada should continue to
sustain relatively solid economic growth for the rest of 2007 and into 2008,"
said Craig Wright, vice-president and chief economist, RBC. "Strong consumer
and business spending will more than offset ongoing export-related weakness
resulting from slower U.S. growth and the high Canadian dollar."
According to the RBC report, strong demand from emerging markets, such as
China, has pushed prices higher for numerous natural resource products
exported by Canada. As a result, Canada's terms of trade - a measure of the
movement in the price of Canadian exports relative to imports - has improved
significantly between 2002 and mid-2007, increasing by roughly 20 per cent.
Improving terms of trade means that Canadians are able to purchase more as its
export earnings rise. Consequently, while growth in overall export volumes is
weak, particularly to the U.S., prices for these natural resource exports have
skyrocketed and are helping to lead Canada's growth story.
As a result of the improved terms of trade along with the lowest
unemployment rate in more than 30 years and solid wage gains, Canadians have
seen their disposable incomes increase sharply over the past two and half
years. This boost has helped fuel the pace of both consumer and business
Inflation rates remain slightly above the mid-point of the Bank of
Canada's target rate. While this state would normally spur the central bank to
raise interest rates, unstable financial markets and the unexpected strength
of the Canadian dollar will likely delay a rate increase until 2008.
"The Canadian dollar appears likely to remain above parity through the
end of the year," said Wright. "However, moving into 2008, as financial market
expectations shift away from further Fed easing and toward an increase in the
Fed funds rate, the Canadian dollar will start to reverse recent gains. This
weakening trend will be abetted by moderating commodity prices. We are
forecasting that the currency will end 2008 at US$0.94/C$, which represents a
9.2 per cent depreciation compared to current levels."
For the U.S., RBC has downgraded its economic forecast for the second
half of this year to an average annualized quarterly growth rate slightly
below 2.5 per cent due to the recent tightening of credit conditions and
continued weakness in its housing market.
The U.S. economy grew on average by 2.2 per cent in the first half of
2007, with growth restrained by an ongoing housing market correction.
Consumers started the year spending aggressively and, even though activity
slowed in the second quarter, the sector remained a key support for the U.S.
economy. RBC forecasts that consumer spending will average 2.5 per cent in the
second half of 2007 and 2.4 per cent in 2008 - a key factor that will see the
U.S. economy avoid a more serious slowdown even as the housing market
correction enters its third year.
Investors' continued reassessment of risk has created heightened downside
exposure for the near-term U.S. economic outlook, placing pressure on the U.S.
Federal Reserve to use all the tools in its arsenal to keep markets liquid. A
25-basis point reduction of the Fed funds rate is expected before the end of
the year, to support the 50 basis point reduction on September 18. Once
stability is restored, the Fed's focus will return to inflation and rates will
start to move back up late in 2008.
A complete copy of the forecast is available as of 8 a.m. E.D.T., at
For further information:
For further information: Craig Wright, RBC Economics, (416) 974-7457;
Jackie Braden, RBC Media Relations, (416) 974-2124; Jimmy Jean sera disponible
pour des commentaires en français.