OTTAWA, Oct. 18 /CNW Telbec/ - The Bank of Canada today released its
October Monetary Policy Report, which discusses current economic and financial
trends in the context of Canada's inflation-control strategy.
There have been a number of significant economic and financial
developments since the July Monetary Policy Report Update. Against a backdrop
of robust global economic expansion and strong commodity prices, the Canadian
economy has been stronger than projected and is now operating further above
its production potential than had been previously expected.
Since the July Update, the outlook for the U.S. economy has weakened. The
Canadian dollar has appreciated sharply, and credit conditions have tightened.
Despite these tighter credit conditions, the momentum of domestic demand in
Canada is expected to remain strong. The combined effect of a weaker U.S.
outlook and a higher assumed level for the Canadian dollar implies, however,
that net exports will exert a more significant drag on the economy in 2008 and
2009 than previously expected. As a result, Canada's gross domestic product is
projected to grow by 2.6 per cent in 2007, 2.3 per cent in 2008, and
2.5 per cent in 2009.
With the economy moving back towards balance, and with the direct effect
of the stronger Canadian dollar on consumer prices, core inflation is
projected to gradually decline to 2 per cent in the second half of 2008. Total
CPI inflation is expected to peak at about 3 per cent later this year and then
move back down to the 2 per cent target in the second half of 2008.
But there are a number of upside and downside risks to the Bank's
inflation projection. The main upside risk is that excess demand in the
Canadian economy could persist longer than projected. The main downside risk
is that output and inflation could be lower if the Canadian dollar were to be
persistently higher than the assumed average level of 98 cents U.S. for
reasons not associated with demand for Canadian products.
All factors considered, the Bank judges that the risks to its inflation
projection are roughly balanced, with perhaps a slight tilt to the downside.
Against this backdrop, the Bank left its key policy rate unchanged on
5 September and 16 October at 4.50 per cent. The Bank judges, at this time,
that the current level of the target for the overnight rate is consistent with
achieving the inflation target over the medium term.
For further information:
For further information: Jeremy Harrison, (613) 782-8782