CALGARY, July 14 /CNW/ - AJM Petroleum Consultants released a third
quarter price forecast for oil and gas that shows an increase in both
short-term and long-term forecast prices. AJM's Q3 2008 price forecast,
established effective June 30, 2008, shows crude oil prices in constant
dollars based on a WTI forecast of US $130.00/bbl for the last two quarters of
2008, $118.00/bbl for 2009, declining to $104.00/bbl in 2015. The AECO natural
gas price in constant dollars is expected to average $12.00/Mcf for the last
two quarters of 2008, $10.00/Mcf in 2009, $9.50/Mcf in 2010 and $9.30/Mcf in
In his forecast commentary, AJM economist and Vice President of
Operations, Ralph Glass, cited a number of independent events, trends and
issues that together are affecting price trends.
"In preparing the AJM forecast, I took into account geo-political
uncertainties in places like Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela and North Korea",
stated Mr. Glass. "I also assessed the impact of the supply/demand question as
it pertains to the ever-growing Chinese, Indian and Middle Eastern economies
and considered the declining production in Mexico and Russia. The general
impact of alternative energy sources, the decline of the American dollar and
the impact of speculative trading were also factors I considered."
Mr. Glass believes that these factors are a strong indication that the
petroleum market is becoming a truly worldwide market, less influenced by
strictly North American factors than it has been in the past. The United
States' dominant role as the world's largest consumer of energy appears to be
waning. The United States is also no longer being used as the world's storage
house for excess market crude. Instead, we are seeing supplies being directed
to China and India while American crude oil stocks are beginning to drop.
Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) imports into North America are also down as better
prices are negotiated in Europe and Asia.
Complete forecast tables, commentary and documentation are available for
download on the AJM Petroleum Consultants website at
AJM Petroleum Consultants, a privately owned Calgary-based company, has
extensive experience in corporate reserve evaluations, acquisition and
divestiture evaluations, and evaluations of unconventional reserves such as
coal bed methane, tight gas, shale gas and bitumen/heavy oil. Diverse
engineering and geological capabilities combined with a forward thinking
approach to technology have allowed AJM to provide innovative solutions to
clients in the upstream sector of the oil and gas industry in Western Canada,
North America and internationally. Over time, the company's price forecasts
have proved to be more realistic than others in the industry.
For further information:
For further information: or to book interviews: Andrea Conway, AJM
Petroleum Consultants, Office: (403) 648-3269, Mobile: (403) 561-8620