HALIFAX, Nov. 1, 2011 /CNW/ - Nova Scotia's international exports are
forecast to grow by 9 per cent in 2012, the leading performance among
Atlantic provinces according to the Fall 2011 Global Export Forecast
released today by Export Development Canada (EDC).
"Despite soft global demand, Nova Scotia's strong export outlook for
2012 is based on spectacular growth in the energy sector, better prices
for seafood and continued growth in the North American automotive
industry," said Peter Hall, EDC's Chief Economist. Hall was in Halifax
today to share his forecast with EDC customers, kicking off a 10-city
"Weaker prices will not dampen enthusiasm in the energy sector.
Production increases at Deep Panuke will vault natural gas exports up
by 22 per cent next year. A rise in metallurgical coal production,
possible in 2012, would only add to a very positive energy sector
Three other industries play a key role in the province's international
Agri-food, accounting for 23 per cent of the province's total exports;
Motor vehicles and parts, accounting for 22 per cent; and
Forestry, accounting for 21 per cent.
Nova Scotia's international agri-food exports, up 12 per cent in 2011,
are forecast to grow by 7 per cent in 2012 owing to expected higher
prices for crab, lobster and scallops.
"Into 2012 and beyond, improvements in conservation technology and
growing demand from pharmaceutical industries for fish oil should
progressively help Nova Scotia make inroads into European markets and
diversify away from the U.S., which currently attracts 60 per cent of
the province's seafood exports."
EDC's forecast for the province's automotive products sector calls for a
10 per cent increase in 2012, following a respectable 4 per cent gain
"Rising economic momentum will continue to push U.S. auto sales back to
more normal volumes," said Hall. "Stronger consumer fundamentals and
revived industrial production will increase vehicle demand stateside,
good news for Nova Scotia tire production."
Nova Scotia's forestry sector is forecast to rebound by 6 per cent in
2012 after a decline of 3 per cent in 2011.
"The decline this year is largely the result of the New Page shutdown.
Going into 2012, newsprint shipments will benefit from higher prices,
although the industry remains under pressure from the increased
digitization of newspapers. On the lumber side, the upside risk is an
early revival of US housing starts."
"Nova Scotia's pulp exports will be helped by new pockets of growth in
emerging markets, an exciting trend that spells lots of future growth
Canadian exports of goods and services are forecast to rise 11 per cent
in 2011 and 7 per cent in 2012. Nationally, economic growth is expected
to rise 2.3 per cent in 2011 and 2.4 per cent in 2012. EDC is
forecasting global growth of 3.7 per cent in 2011 and 4.3 per cent in
EDC's semi-annual Global Export Forecast addresses the latest global
export conditions including perspectives on interest rates, exchange
rates as well as export strategies to help Canadian companies minimize
risk. It also analyzes a range of risks for which exporters should be
prepared. EDC's Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/gef.
EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial
solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their
international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by
more than 8,200 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to
200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining and
a recognized leader in financial reporting and economic analysis.
B-Roll footage of Peter Hall's forecast comments available at: http://Exportwise.ca/listvideo_en
SOURCE Export Development Canada
For further information:
Export Development Canada