OTTAWA, April 18 /CNW/ - The world economy is forecast to expand by 3.5
per cent this year and similar growth is anticipated in 2012 as well.
The Asia-Pacific and Latin American regions are, once again, expected
to lead the world in economic growth in 2011.
However, political tensions in the Middle East and North Africa, the
effects of the Japanese earthquake and the ongoing European debt crisis
will increase risks to the global economy, according to The Conference
Board of Canada's World Outlook - Spring 2011.
"As a result of the Japanese earthquake and unrest in the Middle East
and North Africa, oil prices have increased and are expected to remain
volatile for the foreseeable future," said Kip Beckman, Principal
Economist. "In addition to high oil prices, unsustainable debt loads in
a number of European countries and the potential for renewed inflation
could weaken the global outlook."
Another factor that has created uncertainty in global oil markets has
been the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan. The destruction
of nuclear reactors at the Fukushima power station represents a loss of
eight per cent of Japan's electricity generation. This loss will
eventually have to be made up by thermal power plants, which will
increase demand for oil and place added upward pressure on prices.
Visit http://www.conferenceboard.ca/economics/hot_eco_topics/default/11-03-21/The_Impact_of_Japan_s_Earthquake_and_Tsunami_on_the_Global_Economy.aspx for more on the impact of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami.
The damage to housing and infrastructure and the resulting loss of
production and exports will lead to negative GDP growth in Japan in the
second quarter, but reconstruction efforts should result in positive
growth for the final two quarters of 2011.
The economy of the Asia-Pacific region will continue to perform well,
with growth of about 5 per cent anticipated. However, many of Asia's
key industries depend on specialized Japanese components to keep their
plants operating. Countries such as South Korea could be hurt by delays
in obtaining parts for industrial production. Visit http://www.conferenceboard.ca/economics/hot_eco_topics/default/11-04-05/From_Just-in-Time_to_Just-in-Case_Global_Turmoil_Forcing_a_Re-think_of_Supply_Chains.aspx for more on the effects of supply chain disruption.
The United States may also be hurt by the disruption in Japanese
production, as companies such as Boeing and General Motors depend on
Japanese components. However, the biggest threat to the U.S. economy
remains elevated oil prices. If prices remain well above $100 per
barrel for the remainder of this year, the Conference Board's forecast
of real GDP growth of 3.5 per cent in 2011 could be at risk. Visit
for a commentary on the current labour market situation in the United
The European Union will record meagre growth of 1.7 per cent in both
2011 and 2012. Portugal's request for a bailout from the EU and IMF
indicates that the European debt crisis is far from over. In addition,
high unemployment rates and government cutbacks now being implemented
in some countries will create uncertainty in the EU over the near term.
With real GDP growth expected to come in at a solid 4.3 per cent in
2011, Latin America's primary concern appears to be inflation. As
inflation climbs above five per cent in some countries, central banks
in the region have raised short-term interest rates.
SOURCE CONFERENCE BOARD OF CANADA
For further information:
Brent Dowdall, Media Relations, Tel.: 613- 526-3090 ext. 448