OTTAWA, April 15 /CNW/ - A new survey conducted by global marketing and
public opinion research firm TNS Canada shows that despite all the talk
about coalitions, they aren't as daunting a prospect to Canadians as
they have been made out to be. The survey asked Canadians about a
number of plausible scenarios in the event that no party wins a
majority of seats in the upcoming Federal election. The most
'acceptable' scenario would be a similar situation to how government
has worked for the last several years, i.e. the party with the most
seats forms a government and seeks support on a case-by-case basis.
This scenario is considered 'completely' or 'somewhat' acceptable by
72% of Canadians. However, when asked about the possibility of parties
forming a coalition, a majority of Canadians (57%) would find it
completely or somewhat acceptable if the party with the most seats
forms a coalition government with another party. In addition, even in
the absence of perfect knowledge of parliamentary tradition, 1 in 2
Canadians (49%) would find it acceptable if two or more parties, none
of which obtained the most seats individually, would form a coalition
in order to form a majority government. This is compared to only one in
three (33%) would find this scenario completely or somewhat
"Clearly, while Canadians' preference is for the party with the most
seats to govern with the cooperation of the others, these results show
that most Canadians aren't that apprehensive about a coalition
scenario", indicated Norman Baillie-David, Vice President of TNS and Director of
Public Opinion Research. "These results also show that Canadians want the parties to work
together in the event that no one party wins a majority, and that most
would accept a coalition if that's what it takes to achieve that."
In terms of which parties Canadians would prefer to see form a
coalition, a prospective Liberal - NDP coalition garnered the highest
preference, at 28%, followed by a prospective Conservative - NDP
coalition (24%). Preference drops dramatically for any prospective
coalition which includes the Bloc Québécois:
Liberal-NDP-Bloc : 8%
Liberal-Bloc - 5%
Conservative - Bloc - 3%
Conservative - NDP- Bloc - 3%.
One-in-five (20%) of Canadians indicated that they wouldn't prefer any
of these coalition scenarios.
Acceptance of Coalitions Differs along Party and Regional Lines
As might be expected, the level of acceptance for different coalition
scenarios differs along both party and regional lines. Interestingly, a
majority of Conservative supporters feel a coalition formed by the
party which wins the most seats is acceptable (51%). However,
Conservative supporters are also the ones most strongly opposed to a
scenario in which parties which did not obtain the most seats form a
coalition, with 55% finding this scenario unacceptable.
In terms of regional views, acceptance of two parties not having the
most seats forming a coalition government hovers around the 50% mark in
all regions except the Prairies1, where only 39% would see this scenario as acceptable, compared to 44%
who would view it as unacceptable.
Overall Voting Intention
In terms of voting intention, the Conservatives lead at 36% of decided
voters, compared to 25% for the Liberals, 18% for the NDP, 9% for the
Green Party, and 9% (nationally) for the Bloc Québécois. In Quebec, the
Bloc Québécois leads at 35%, followed by the NDP at 22%, the Liberals
and Conservatives in a dead heat at 18% and 17% respectively, and the
Green Party at 6%. While it appears that the NDP may be strong in
Quebec, we caution that the results are subject to a wide margin of
error (+/- 7.2%) due to the Quebec sample size of 183.
About the Survey
A telephone survey of 1,015 Canadians was conducted between April 4 and
April 8, 2011. The margin of error on national results is +/- 3.1%, 19
times out of 20. Margins of error on regional results are significantly
higher, ranging from +/- 5.4% (Ontario) to +/- 9.6% (Atlantic). The
full report can be viewed at www.tns-cf.com.
TNS Canada (formerly known as TNS Canadian Facts) is the Canadian arm of TNS. TNS is the world's largest custom research agency delivering
actionable insights and research-based business advice to its clients
so they can make more effective business decisions. TNS offers
comprehensive industry knowledge within the Consumer, Technology,
Finance, Automotive and Political & Social sectors, supported by a
unique product offering that stretches across the entire range of
marketing and business issues, specializing in product development &
innovation, brand & communication, stakeholder management, retail &
shopper, and qualitative research. Delivering best-in-class service
across more than 70 countries, TNS is part of the Kantar Group. Please
visit www.tnsglobal.com for more information.
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TNS is part of Kantar, one of the world's largest insight, information
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1 Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta
SOURCE TNS Canadian Facts
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