CALGARY, AB, Nov. 16, 2011 /CNW/ - Alberta's international exports are
forecast to grow by another 2 per cent in 2012 following 2011's
estimated 18 per cent surge, according to a Global Export Forecast by
Export Development Canada (EDC).
"While Alberta counts on crude oil and natural gas for the bulk of its
exports, other industries will generate all of the growth in
international sales during 2012," said Peter Hall, Chief Economist for
EDC. "Next year, the province's export growth will be buoyed by the
forestry and industrial goods sectors as declining prices put downward
pressure on Alberta's oil exports."
Hall was in Calgary today to share his forecast with EDC customers, the
fifth stop on a 10-city cross-Canada tour.
The province's international export picture is led by three key sectors:
Energy, accounting for 72 per cent of the province's total exports;
Industrial Goods, accounting for 11 per cent; and
Agri-food, accounting for 8.4 per cent.
"After a hefty 21 per cent increase in energy exports in 2011,
performance will plateau 2012 as slight gains in natural gas and
electricity offset price declines for oil and coal." A critical element
of this forecast is EDC's outlook for world oil prices, with the cost
of WTI crude expected to fall from an average of USD 94/bbl in 2011 to
USD 85/bbl in 2012.
"High inventories and weak market conditions suggested that the
triple-digit crude prices seen earlier this year were unsustainable,"
Mr. Hall added. "The sharp slowing of the global economy during the
summer and speculation about a double-dip recession burst the price
bubble by mid-year. Current demand and supply conditions suggest that
there's little fundamental support for a price rebound, so we believe
lower prices are in the offing through 2012."
"We expect growth in U.S. natural gas production to slow through 2012,
leading to a gradual reduction of inventories and modest increases in
the price of gas this year and next. We expect gas at Henry Hub to
average USD 4.25/MMBtu in 2011, and drift upwards to USD 4.75/MMBtu in
2012, with some upward price pressure coming from the expected decline
in U.S. drilling activity."
EDC's agri-food sector forecast calls for record-high prices for
agricultural commodities that will push exports up by 6 per cent next
year, following a 17 per cent jump in 2011. "Growth in biofuel usage,
coupled with the trend in emerging markets towards higher protein
diets, continues to drive global demand for grains, oilseeds, meats and
EDC believes that the province's forestry exports will rise 4 per cent
this year and 18 per cent in 2012. "Wood products will see strong
growth thanks to the beginnings of a resurgence in the U.S. housing
market," said Hall. "In addition, strong Chinese demand for lumber and
a boost from new production at Fox Creek will boost the numbers."
EDC's forecast for the province's industrial goods sector expects gains
of 11 per cent in 2011 and 9 per cent in 2012.
Canadian exports of goods and services are forecast to rise 11 per cent
in 2011 and 7 per cent in 2012. Nationally, economic growth is expected
to rise 2.3 per cent in 2011 and 2.4 per cent in 2012. EDC is
forecasting global growth of 3.7 per cent in 2011 and 4.3 per cent in
EDC's semi-annual Global Export Forecast addresses the latest global
export conditions including perspectives on interest rates, exchange
rates as well as export strategies to help Canadian companies minimize
risk. It also analyzes a range of risks for which exporters should be
prepared. EDC's Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/gef.
B-Roll footage of Peter Hall's forecast comments available at: http://Exportwise.ca/listvideo_en.
EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial
solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their
international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by
more than 8,200 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to
200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining and
a recognized leader in financial reporting and economic analysis.
SOURCE Export Development Canada
For further information:
Export Development Canada