Quebec housing starts to achieve 40,000 in 2009



    MONTREAL, May 19 /CNW Telbec/ - According to the latest forecasts
conducted by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), total housing
starts in Quebec shall achieve 40,000 units in 2009 and over 41,000 in 2010.
    A weaker economic environment, combined with increased supply of homes in
certain market segments, has set the stage for declining housing starts in
Quebec this year. "Despite favourable buying conditions, housing starts will
move down to the 40,000 level in 2009, while sales of existing homes decrease
to about 70,000 units" said Kevin Hughes, Senior Economist at CMHC for Quebec.
    The province's economy, whose growth went from 2.6 per cent in 2007 to
1.0 per cent last year, started to show signs of contraction in the last
quarter of 2008. It is expected that the currently high level of economic
uncertainty and the declining labour market will continue to hold back
household spending in the near term. And while private investment is reduced,
the outlook for exports continues to worsen as external (foreign and Canadian)
demand weakens.
    However, governments have responded through increased spending on
infrastructure projects and by enacting fiscal and monetary stimulus plans.
Still, the Quebec economy will recede by 2 per cent in 2009, while job growth
registers a similar result, a decline of 1.9 per cent. In 2010, the economy
will grow by 1.4 per cent while the labour market begins to recover (0.1 per
cent). "Meanwhile, demographic patterns will fuel housing markets in Quebec.
Sustained and increasing net migration will stimulate demand for rental
housing while population aging will draw retirees into apartment living. These
trends will continue, however their rate of increase is expected to slow in
the short term" added Kevin Hughes.

    In Detail

    Single Starts: Starts in this segment will be especially affected by the
economic and financial environment. Homebuyers will increasingly turn to the
less expensive resale market, where supply is more abundant. Semi-detached and
row housing are also likely to be viewed as more affordable substitutes.
Approximately 16,600 single starts are expected in 2009 and close to 18,000 in
2010.
    Multiple Starts: Quebec markets have posted several years of vigorous
construction of retirement homes and condominiums, bringing multifamily starts
to historically high levels. Given the fact the growth rate of the population
aged 75 and over will temporarily slow and given current elevated supply,
starts in this category will drop to 23,400 units in 2009, increasing
marginally in 2010.
    Resales: Sales of existing homes will decline in 2009, but will remain at
a relatively high level. Demand for condominiums (town houses or apartments)
will still be an important component, but will nevertheless decrease. The
Multiple Listing Service (MLS) will record approximately 70,000 sales in 2009.
Being the first market to react to the economic recovery, resales will amount
to 77,000 in 2010.
    Prices: Lower sales and rising inventories will continue to take pressure
off prices. Cooling demand should rule out price growth in 2009. As a result,
the MLS average resale price will fall to about $207,000 in 2009. Even though
price growth resumes in the latter part of 2010, no significant increase is
expected for the year as a whole.

    Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canada's national
housing agency for more than 60 years. CMHC is committed to helping Canadians
access a wide choice of quality, affordable homes, while making vibrant,
healthy communities and cities a reality across the country. For more
information, visit www.cmhc.ca or call 1-800-668-2642.

    
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          Forecast Summary - Spring 2009
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                    Single
                                      deta-                   Rental
                           Total      ched             MLS(R)  vacan-
    Major                housing   housing   MLS(R)  average      cy  Average
     Centres     Year     starts    starts   sales     price    rate     rent
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 2008      3,304     1,120   4,390   186,212     1.9      677
                 ------------------------------------------------------------
    Gatineau     2009(F)   2,700       850   3,975   189,000     2.5      690
                 ------------------------------------------------------------
                 2010(F)   2,750       800   3,875   190,900     2.5      705
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 2008     21,927     6,602  40,440   258,028     2.4      659
                 ------------------------------------------------------------
    Montréal     2009(F)  17,700     5,200  36,500   255,000     2.0      668
                 ------------------------------------------------------------
                 2010(F)  18,900     5,500  39,500   256,000     2.3      675
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 2008      5,457     2,031   8,003   193,195     0.6      653
                 ------------------------------------------------------------
    Québec       2009(F)   4,795     1,725   7,445   198,991     0.6      663
                 ------------------------------------------------------------
                 2010(F)   4,330     1,465   7,820   204,961     0.6      673
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 2008        869       400   1,557   150,597     1.6      518
                 ------------------------------------------------------------
    Saguenay     2009(F)     645       295   1,250   156,600     2.0      530
                 ------------------------------------------------------------
                 2010(F)     565       300   1,350   163,600     2.0      540
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 2008      1,627       802   1,864   179,434     2.8      543
                 ------------------------------------------------------------
    Sherbrooke   2009(F)   1,545       730   1,800   179,400     3.0      555
                 ------------------------------------------------------------
                 2010(F)   1,450       750   1,890   179,500     3.1      565
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 2008      1,148       373     799   141,610     1.7      505
    Trois-       ------------------------------------------------------------
     Rivières    2009(F)     850       325     760   146,000     1.8      515
                 ------------------------------------------------------------
                 2010(F)     800       310     750   150,000     2.0      525
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 2008     47,901    19,778  79,402   210,775     n/a      n/a
                 ------------------------------------------------------------
    Quebec       2009(F)  40,000    16,600  70,000   207,200     n/a      n/a
                 ------------------------------------------------------------
                 2010(F)  41,350    17,850  77,000   207,500     n/a      n/a
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    n/a: Not applicable

    MLS(R) is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
    (CREA).

    Sources: CMHC, Canadian Real Estate Association, Statistics Canada, CMHC
    Forecast 2009-2010

    Source for Quebec CMA's MLS(R) data: The Quebec Federation of Real Estate
    Boards by Centris(TM), CMHC compilation

    NOTE: Rental universe = Privately initiated rental apartment
    structures of three units and over
    




For further information:

For further information: Province: Kevin Hughes, Senior Economist CMHC,
(514) 283-4488; Montréal: Bertrand Recher, Senior Market Analyst, (514)
283-2758; Québec: Elisabeth Koulouris, Senior Market Analyst, (418) 649-8098;
Gatineau (Outaouais): Patrice tardif, Senior Market Analyst, (514) 283-2097;
Sherbrooke (Estrie): Francis Cortellino, Market Analyst, (514) 283-8391;
Trois-Rivières (Mauricie): Marie-Elaine Denis, Market Analyst, (418) 649-8100;
Saguenay: Patrice Tardif, Senior Market Analyst, (514) 283-2097


Custom Packages

Browse our custom packages or build your own to meet your unique communications needs.

Start today.

CNW Membership

Fill out a CNW membership form or contact us at 1 (877) 269-7890

Learn about CNW services

Request more information about CNW products and services or call us at 1 (877) 269-7890