Nova Scotia's economic growth limited by pressures on exports, says RBC Economics



    TORONTO, June 22 /CNW/ - According to a provincial economic forecast
released today by RBC, Nova Scotia has limited economic growth prospects as
exports declined sharply last year and remain under pressure in 2007.
    "While a drop in gas production contributed to the decline, a new
compression platform at the Sable Offshore Energy Project, that was installed
late last year, should lift gas production by about 20 per cent this year,"
said Craig Wright, vice-president and chief economist, RBC. "With this boost,
the province's growth should hover just above two per cent for the next few
years."
    Key projects could also provide a major lift to the economy by the end of
the decade RBC said. The fate of the Deep Panuke project, which may finally be
determined this summer, and the possible approval of a $4.5 billion combined
petrochemical plant and LNG receiving terminal in Goldsboro, all have
significant potential for the province.
    According to the RBC report, healthy job creation and solid gains in the
housing market should help continue to strengthen the economy. However,
softening construction markets have already started to emerge and are expected
to continue to weaken in the year ahead as both non-residential and
residential construction slow down.
    Across Canada, Newfoundland and Labrador will be the provincial growth
leader in 2007 at 7.5 per cent before experiencing a dramatic pull back next
year, shifting the spotlight back onto the more sustainable growth in Western
Canada. Prince Edward Island and Ontario will be at the back of the pack, each
with growth rates just shy of two per cent this year.

    The RBC Economics Provincial Outlook assesses the provinces according to
economic growth, employment growth, unemployment rates, personal income
growth, retail sales, housing starts and the Consumer Price Index.
    According to the report (available online as of 8 a.m. E.D.T., at
www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/provfcst.pdf), provincial forecast details
are as follows:

    
                      Real GDP          Housing starts        Retail sales

                                          Thousands
                  06     07     08     06     07     08     06     07     08
                  --     --     --     --     --     --     --     --     --
    NFLD.        2.8    7.5    0.5    2.2    2.0    1.8    2.9    5.5    2.0
    P.E.I        2.0    1.9    1.7    0.7    0.6    0.6    4.1    4.5    3.7
    N.S.         1.1    2.4    2.3    4.9    4.5    4.4    6.3    3.1    3.3
    N.B.         2.6    2.5    2.6    4.1    3.8    3.7    5.5    3.9    4.0
    QUE.         1.7    2.1    2.6   47.9   42.1   39.6    4.5    4.7    4.8
    ONT.         1.9    1.9    2.7   73.4   63.9   60.0    4.0    3.5    4.9
    MAN.         3.3    3.0    3.2    5.0    5.3    4.4    5.8    6.1    6.0
    SASK.        0.4    4.0    3.6    3.7    4.6    3.9    5.9    7.4    6.0
    ALTA.        6.8    4.6    4.0   49.0   44.8   39.9   16.0    9.3    8.5
    B.C.         3.6    3.2    3.3   36.4   35.3   31.1    6.2    6.0    5.8
    CANADA       2.8    2.6    2.9    228    208    190    6.2    5.2    5.2

                     Employment              CPI

                  06     07     08     06     07     08
                  --     --     --     --     --     --
    NFLD.        0.7    1.2    0.1    1.8    2.0    1.4
    P.E.I        0.6    0.8    0.4    2.3    1.5    1.7
    N.S.        -0.3    1.1    0.3    2.0    1.4    1.3
    N.B.         1.4    0.8    0.4    1.7    1.5    1.4
    QUE.         1.3    2.0    0.9    1.7    2.3    1.8
    ONT.         1.5    1.3    1.0    1.8    2.1    2.1
    MAN.         1.2    1.1    0.9    2.0    2.3    2.5
    SASK.        1.7    3.0    1.0    2.1    3.5    2.8
    ALTA.        4.8    4.2    2.0    3.9    5.2    3.5
    B.C.         3.1    3.0    1.9    1.7    2.2    2.3
    CANADA       2.0    2.0    1.2    2.0    2.4    2.2
    





For further information:

For further information: Craig Wright, RBC Economics, (416) 974-7457;
Derek Holt, RBC Economics, (416) 974-6192; Jackie Braden, RBC Media Relations,
(416) 974-2124


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