Newfoundland to post strong export growth in 2008 after besting country in 2007, says EDC



    ST. JOHN'S, Nov. 26 /CNW Telbec/ - International exports from
Newfoundland and Labrador will surge 16.7 per cent this year to lead the
country and a further 5 per cent in 2008, according to a provincial export
outlook by Export Development Canada (EDC).
    "Newfoundland and Labrador's export growth will lead the country this
year thanks to higher energy and ore shipments, and to a much smaller degree,
transportation equipment," said Stephen Poloz, Senior Vice-President of
Corporate Affairs and Chief Economist. "In 2008, a weaker Canadian dollar will
continue to fuel the province's growth and a potential rebound in the forestry
sector."
    The energy sector accounts for 70.5 per cent of the province's export
picture. EDC is forecasting a 16 per cent increase in energy exports this year
and another 7 per cent increase in 2008. Total production of crude is forecast
to be 130 million barrels this year, with approximately half destined for
international markets. Production is expected to rise to nearly 150 million
barrels in 2008 as a result of higher output from White Rose and Hibernia. EDC
is forecasting WTI crude to average US$64/barrel in 2008, down slightly from
2007, and that the province's export values to move in line with refined
petroleum product prices. The longer term outlook for energy is positive, with
possible consideration being given to construction of a second refinery and
the go-ahead given for Hebron.
    The industrial goods sector, representing 12.6 per cent of the province's
exports, posted a massive 40 per cent increase this year, as summer shipments
of nickel and copper totaled $400 million. While the impact on international
exports will be significant, there will be no increase to the province's real
GDP since these volumes of ore were not processed in Canada. As global
economic activity slows, Asian steel demand for iron ore is forecasted to
remain high, thereby maintaining prices. In addition to a lower Canadian
dollar and higher production levels, exports of iron ore are forecast to grow
by 14 per cent in 2008.
    Nationally, Canadian economic growth is forecast to remain stable at
2.3 per cent in 2007, and 2.6 per cent in 2008. Key price gains in commodities
have put Canadian exports on track to increase by 3.7 per cent in 2007, but
the impact of weaker U.S. and global demand will have the export growth rate
more than halved to 1.5 per cent in 2008. Internationally, EDC is forecasting
a 4.9 per cent growth rate in 2007, and 4.5 per cent in 2008. EDC's Global
Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/gef.

    EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial
solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international
business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by 6,400 Canadian
companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year.
EDC is financially self-sustaining and is a recognized leader in financial
reporting, economic analysis and has been recognize as one of Canada's Top 100
Employers for seven consecutive years.




For further information:

For further information: Media: Phil Taylor, EDC Public Affairs, (613)
598-2904, ptaylor@edc.ca


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