New Brunswick mega projects offer significant upside growth potential, says RBC Economics



    TORONTO, Oct. 12 /CNW/ - According to the latest provincial outlook
released today by RBC, New Brunswick's anticipated economic growth rate will
hold in the range of 2.5 per cent over the next two years.
    "The real story is in New Brunswick's long-term growth outlook," said
Craig Wright, vice-president and chief economist, RBC. "There's significant
upside potential to the province's growth forecast from prospective mega
projects that could shift into production later this decade and into the early
part of the next."
    RBC noted that three potential mega projects could inject a possible
9,000 construction jobs later this decade and on into the early part of the
next decade. These projects include: a possible second nuclear reactor to
support the growing energy demands of the U.S. northeast, a potentially major
expansion at a potash mine expected to more than double its production to
serve the expanding fertilizer market in South America, and a possible second
refinery that would be an additional boon to the local economy. If these
projects proceed, New Brunswick will be among the provincial leaders in terms
of the pace of job growth.
    Across the provinces, Newfoundland and Labrador is expected to be the
growth leader this year, with Alberta moving into the lead in 2008, rivaled
only by Saskatchewan. Manitoba's steady growth and inflation rates will keep
it in the middle of the western provincial pack, and B.C.'s growth rate will
move slightly downward. RBC's forecast for Ontario's economy has been revised
downward to the bottom of the pack among all the provinces. Quebec should fare
somewhat better than Ontario next year, until currency depreciation, lower
energy prices, improvements in the U.S. economy, and capital spending lift
central Canada's manufacturers and exporters. While P.E.I.'s growth prospects
are modest, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick are well-positioned for better
long-run growth as a result of renewed prospects for several large-scale
capital projects.
    The RBC Economics Provincial Outlook assesses the provinces according to
economic growth, employment growth, unemployment rates, personal income
growth, retail sales, housing starts and the Consumer Price Index.
    According to the report (available online as of 8 a.m. E.D.T., at
www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/provfcst.pdf), provincial forecast details
are as follows:

    
                      Real GDP          Housing starts        Retail sales

                                          Thousands
                  07     08     09     07     08     09     07     08     09
                  --     --     --     --     --     --     --     --     --
    NFLD.        7.5    0.5    1.0    2.4    2.1    1.8    9.5    6.0    2.0
    P.E.I        1.9    1.8    1.4    0.6    0.6    0.5    9.0    4.5    3.7
    N.S.         2.4    3.1    3.5    4.7    4.4    4.0    3.8    4.9    6.5
    N.B.         2.5    2.8    2.6    4.1    3.8    3.4    5.6    4.5    4.0
    QUE.         2.1    2.3    2.4   51.5   47.9   42.6    5.0    4.5    4.0
    ONT.         1.9    1.8    2.5   68.6   66.5   60.5    3.6    4.0    4.5
    MAN.         3.4    3.0    2.5    5.8    5.4    4.7    8.7    5.7    3.0
    SASK.        4.8    4.3    3.2    5.8    4.8    3.5   12.5    9.5    6.0
    ALTA.        5.0    4.5    3.0   48.5   41.2   35.0   10.5    9.8    8.5
    B.C.         3.1    2.9    2.8   37.2   32.3   26.8    7.2    6.3    8.0
    CANADA       2.7    2.5    2.6    230    210    184    6.0    5.6    5.5

                     Employment              CPI

                  07     08     09     07     08     09
                  --     --     --     --     --     --
    NFLD.        0.8    0.1    0.3    1.3    1.4    1.2
    P.E.I        1.3    0.4    0.2    1.5    1.7    1.6
    N.S.         1.3    1.2    2.0    1.7    1.3    2.0
    N.B.         2.0    0.8    0.9    1.8    1.4    1.6
    QUE.         1.9    0.9    0.8    1.9    1.6    1.5
    ONT.         1.4    0.9    1.0    2.0    1.8    1.7
    MAN.         1.4    1.0    0.4    2.4    2.1    1.8
    SASK.        2.4    1.0    0.8    3.0    3.0    2.3
    ALTA.        4.9    2.0    1.8    5.4    3.3    2.8
    B.C.         3.2    1.9    2.6    2.1    2.1    2.5
    CANADA       2.2    1.2    1.2    2.3    2.0    1.9
    




For further information:

For further information: Craig Wright, RBC Economics, (416) 974-7457;
Derek Holt, RBC Economics, (416) 974-6192; Jackie Braden, RBC Media Relations,
(416) 974-2124


Custom Packages

Browse our custom packages or build your own to meet your unique communications needs.

Start today.

CNW Membership

Fill out a CNW membership form or contact us at 1 (877) 269-7890

Learn about CNW services

Request more information about CNW products and services or call us at 1 (877) 269-7890