New Brunswick Housing Activity to Decline Before Rebounding in 2010



    MONCTON, May 19 /CNW/ - Total housing starts in New Brunswick are
expected to decline to 3,475 units in 2009, according to Canada Mortgage and
Housing Corporation's (CMHC) Housing Market Outlook released today.
Residential construction is expected to see a moderate rebound to 3,650 units
in 2010.
    "Although slower economic growth will impact residential construction in
2009, the new home and resale markets in New Brunswick are expected to remain
strong in historical terms," said Claude Gautreau, CMHC's senior market
analyst for New Brunswick. Nevertheless, the challenges facing the housing
market in 2009 are not unexpected. "The pace of growth in both the new home
and resale markets established during the past decade began to slow in 2008 as
demand weakened resulting in a reduction in residential housing activity,"
continued Gautreau.
    In 2009, the provincial economy will continue to face challenges stemming
from weakness in the primary resource sector, although the long-term outlook
for the province is still positive. "Capital investment has, and will continue
to help bolster the economy by offsetting the restraining effect of reduced
exports", said Gautreau. Multi-billion dollar projects, particularly energy
sector projects in the Saint John area, will continue to spark economic
activity in the province.
    In New Brunswick's three large urban areas - Saint John, Moncton and
Fredericton - a reduction in residential construction is expected in 2009.
Existing home sales in 2009 are also expected to decline between 12 and 17 per
cent, followed by a moderate increase in 2010. Although the average MLS(R)
sale price for existing homes is expected to rise in 2009, price growth will
be minimal. With an anticipated increase in sales in 2010, stronger price
growth should return.


    
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                               Forecast Summary
                                 Spring 2009
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      2006     2007     2008    2009f  % chg    2010f  % chg
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 Moncton CMA
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Resale Market
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    MLS(R) Sales     2,561    2,849    2,663    2,300  -13.6    2,350    2.2
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    MLS(R) Average
     Price ($)     128,547  140,032  143,173  145,500    1.6  149,000    2.4
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    New Home
     Market
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Starts:
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Single-
       Detached        593      655      566      540   -4.6      560    3.7
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Multiples        823      770      793      625  -21.2      670    7.2
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Starts -
       Total         1,416    1,425    1,359    1,165  -14.3    1,230    5.6
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                               Saint John CMA
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Resale Market
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    MLS(R) Sales     1,852    2,253    2,166    1,800  -16.9    1,850    2.8
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    MLS(R) Average
     Price ($)     128,202  140,544  158,117  163,500    3.4  170,000    4.0
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    New Home Market
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Starts:
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Single-
       Detached        363      412      488      425  -12.9      440    3.5
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Multiples        202      275      344      300  -12.8      320    6.7
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Starts -
       Total           565      687      832      725  -12.9      760    4.8
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                               Fredericton CA
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Resale Market
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    MLS(R) Sales     2,120    2,448    2,160    1,900  -12.0    1,950    2.6
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    MLS(R) Average
     Price ($)     138,094  141,117  152,268  154,000    1.1  158,500    2.9
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    New Home Market
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Starts:
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Single-
       Detached        387      432      475      430   -9.5      450    4.7
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Multiples        323      204      223      160  -28.3      170    6.3
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Starts -
       Total           710      636      698      590  -15.5      620    5.1
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MLS(R) is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
    (CREA).
    Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey, Market Absorption Survey),
    adapted from Statistics Canada (CANSIM), CREA, Statistics Canada (CANSIM)
    




For further information:

For further information: Claude Gautreau, CMHC Market Analysis Centre,
(506) 851-2742, Cell: (506) 866-9002, cgautrea@cmhc.ca; visit www.cmhc.ca or
call 1 800 668-2642


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