MLS(R) home sales forecast revised



    OTTAWA, Aug. 27 /CNW Telbec/ - MLS(R) home sales were much stronger than
expected in the second quarter of 2009, with activity having climb throughout
the quarter and into July. The remarkable recovery of resale housing has
prompted a change to the MLS(R) home sales forecast issued by The Canadian
Real Estate Association for 2009 and 2010.
    The speed and magnitude of the rebound in sales activity to date has
lifted CREA's national forecast for the number of transactions to 432,600
units. This represents an annual decline in activity of 0.4 per cent compared
to levels set in 2008, and is a significant upward revision from the
previously forecast decline of 14.7 per cent in CREA's forecast issued last
May.
    "Sales activity started off the third quarter on a strong footing," said
CREA President Dale Ripplinger. "The difference in the resale housing market
now, compared to the beginning of the year, is night and day, and nowhere is
this more evident than in the West."
    British Columbia and Ontario are now forecast to post annual increases in
activity this year, reflecting weak demand last year and a subsequent rebound.
Forecast declines in annual activity were trimmed significantly in Alberta,
Saskatchewan, and Quebec, and were also shaved for New Brunswick and Nova
Scotia.
    National MLS(R) home sales activity is forecast to rise 5.3 per cent to
455,400 units in 2010. This is a smaller rise in activity than previously
forecast. "Low interest rates are boosting sales by returning homebuyers to
the market who moved to the sidelines late last year, and shifting," said
Chief Economist Gregory Klump. "Buyers are also shifting purchase decisions
forward as they take advantage of attractive interest rates now before
financing costs increase."
    New listings have been edging down from record levels, with many sellers
taking their home off the market pending an improvement in housing market
conditions. Average price increases in the second half of 2009 are likely to
result in a mild rebound in listings in 2010.
    The national MLS(R) average home price is forecast to edge up 1.5 per
cent in 2009, as the strong rebound in sales activity, not price, in some of
Canada's most expensive markets continues to skew the national, and some
provincial, average prices upward. Alberta is the only province with a
forecast decline in average price in 2009 (-4.4 per cent). Average prices are
forecast to rise in all other provinces except British Columbia, where average
price in 2009 is forecast to remain stable. CREA's previous forecast predicted
a decline in the national average price of 5.2 per cent in 2009.
    Average prices are forecast to stabilize over the rest of 2009 and into
2010, but weak results in the first quarter of 2009 will result in a lower
annual average price this year compared to 2010. The national average price is
forecast to be up 2.1 per cent on a year-over-year basis in 2010.
    The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the weighted national
MLS(R) average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales
activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned
housing stock. The weighted national MLS(R) average price is forecast to climb
1.4 per cent in 2009, with a further 1.7 per cent rise in 2010. CREA
previously forecast that the weighted national average price for MLS(R) homes
sales would hold steady from 2009 to 2010.
    "The speed with which the Canadian resale housing market has rebounded is
unprecedented," said Klump. "The economic recovery is expected to be slow and
protracted, so the dramatic swings in activity seen in late 2008 and this year
are unlikely to be repeated in 2010."

    
    CREA MLS(R) Residential Market Forecast:
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   2008              2009              2010
                                  Annual            Annual            Annual
                                 percen-           percen-           percen-
    MLS(R) residential              tage   2009       tage   2010       tage
    unit sales forecast   2008    change Forecast   change Forecast   change
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Canada              434,477    -17.1  432,600     -0.4  455,400      5.3
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    British Columbia     68,923    -33.0   72,500      5.2   77,600      7.0
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Alberta              56,399    -21.0   55,000     -2.5   60,750     10.5
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Saskatchewan         10,203    -15.4    9,800     -3.9   10,400      6.1
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Manitoba             13,525     -2.9   12,850     -5.0   13,300      3.5
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ontario             181,001    -15.2  181,900      0.5  189,400      4.1
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Quebec               79,402     -4.9   77,800     -2.0   80,750      3.8
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    New Brunswick         7,555     -7.4    7,000     -7.3    7,150      2.1
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Nova Scotia          10,874     -8.3    9,600    -11.7    9,850      2.6
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Prince Edward Island  1,413    -20.1    1,400     -0.9    1,350     -3.6
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Newfoundland          4,695      5.0    4,250     -9.5    4,250      0.0
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------



    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   2008              2009              2010
                                  Annual            Annual            Annual
    MLS(R) residential           percen-           percen-           percen-
    average price                   tage   2009       tage   2010       tage
    forecast              2008    change Forecast   change Forecast   change
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Canada              304,985     -0.3  309,500      1.5  315,900      2.1
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    British Columbia    454,599      3.5  454,000     -0.1  463,000      2.0
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Alberta             352,857     -0.9  337,300     -4.4  343,200      1.7
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Saskatchewan        224,592     28.8  236,600      5.3  239,100      1.1
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Manitoba            190,296     12.5  202,100      6.2  207,500      2.7
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ontario             302,354      0.9  309,700      2.4  315,000      1.7
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Quebec              215,470      6.2  220,600      2.4  222,500      0.9
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    New Brunswick       145,762      6.7  151,500      3.9  154,000      1.7
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Nova Scotia         189,932      4.9  195,300      2.8  199,200      2.0
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Prince Edward
     Island             139,944      4.9  146,600      4.8  148,500      1.3
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Newfoundland        178,477     19.6  205,100     14.9  216,900      5.8
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    





For further information:

For further information: Alyson Fair, Publicist, The Canadian Real
Estate Association, 200 rue Catherine Street, étage 6th floor, Ottawa, ON, K2P
2K9, Tel: (613) 237-7111 X 2284, Cell: (613)884-1460, afair@crea.ca

Organization Profile

The Canadian Real Estate Association

More on this organization


Custom Packages

Browse our custom packages or build your own to meet your unique communications needs.

Start today.

CNW Membership

Fill out a CNW membership form or contact us at 1 (877) 269-7890

Learn about CNW services

Request more information about CNW products and services or call us at 1 (877) 269-7890