Manitoba's exports can expect big drop in 2009, says EDC



    WINNIPEG, May 7 /CNW Telbec/ - Manitoba's exports are forecast to decline
by 16 per cent in 2009 before rebounding slightly by 5 per cent in 2010,
according to a provincial export outlook by Export Development Canada (EDC).
    "Manitoba's exports, though highly diversified, will not emerge untouched
by the shocks cascading through the global economy," said Peter Hall, Chief
Economist of EDC.
    "While the softer loonie should offer export values a lift, Manitoba's
primary industries will struggle under the sharp corrections in commodity
markets. Bucking the trend will be the province's flagship transportation
niches, which stand to benefit from strong forward momentum and forthcoming
stimulus dollars."
    The agrifood sector, accounting for 37 per cent of the province's exports
overall, is expected to see exports decline by 16 per cent in 2009 and
followed by a 5 per cent increase in 2010.
    EDC expects the double-digit increases in canola and wheat production of
2008 and the early part of 2009 to flatten out in the coming season owing to
weak planting incentives.
    In the livestock sub sector, soft global meat demand, reduced local
supplies and regulatory hurdles have further depressed its export outlook.
    Sales of agricultural manufacturing and equipment will drop in both years
as Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, which account for a third of Manitoba's
sector exports, remained challenged by the headwinds of tight credit and
currency erosion.
    The industrial goods sector accounts for 25 per cent of the province's
overall export picture, and is expected to decline by 29 per cent in 2009
before rebounding by 10 per cent in 2010.
    Asian demand for stainless steel has been declining in tandem with the
construction industry worldwide. EDC does not expect prices of nickel, copper,
and zinc to experience a sustainable recovery during the forecast window.
Curtailments in the province's copper complex and exploration activity
dwindling, export volumes are expected to remain dim into the medium-term.
    Canadian exports are forecast to decline by 22.2 per cent in 2009 before
rebounding by 7.4 per cent in 2010. Nationally, economic growth is expected to
decline by 2 per cent in 2009 with a slight increase of 1.7 per cent in 2010.
Internationally, EDC is forecasting a 1.3 per cent decline in 2009 and 2.3 per
cent increase in 2010 in global GDP. EDC's Global Export Forecast is available
at http://www.edc.ca/gef.

    EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial
solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international
business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by more than 8,300
Canadian companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide
each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining, a recognized leader in
financial reporting and economic analysis, and has been recognized as one of
Canada's Top 100 Employers for eight consecutive years.




For further information:

For further information: Media contact: Phil Taylor, Export Development
Canada, (613) 598-2904, Blackberry: ptaylor@edc.ca


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