AJM Releases Fourth Quarter Oil and Gas Price Forecast
CALGARY, Oct. 6 /CNW/ - AJM Petroleum Consultants released a fourth
quarter price forecast for oil and gas that predicts a decrease in prices over
the next three years, but holds long-term forecast prices at the same rate as
predicted last quarter. In his forecast commentary, AJM economist and Vice
President of Operations, Ralph Glass, cautioned against weighing the current
turmoil in the financial markets too heavily against long-term price trends.
"If the US goes deeper into debt and recession, the value of the US
dollar will drop and the price of crude oil will increase - this is why AJM is
predicting oil prices at $100.00/bbl in the longer term," stated Mr. Glass.
"Our short-term price drop reflects the fact that global economic concern
appears to be causing a reduction in demand, especially in the US. It also
reflects the ripple effect the economic turmoil in the US is causing
throughout the world: as Europe experiences a credit crunch, the EURO is
dropping against the US dollar, causing a corresponding drop in the crude oil
price. And as oil goes, so does gas."
Mr. Glass believes that despite all the current turmoil, the basic
fundamentals of an increasing worldwide demand, a declining production
capability, and the lack of a cost effective alternative energy source are
still the drivers that will keep the oil and gas prices high.
AJM's Q4 2008 price forecast, established effective September 30, 2008,
shows crude oil prices in constant dollars based on a WTI forecast of US
$100.00/bbl for the last quarter of 2008, $108.00/bbl for 2009, declining to
$104.00/bbl in 2015. The AECO natural gas price in constant dollars is
expected to average $7.35/Mcf for the last quarter of 2008, $8.70/Mcf in 2009,
$8.40/Mcf in 2010 and $9.00/Mcf in 2011.
Complete forecast tables, commentary and documentation for AJM's
September 30 Price Forecast are available for download on the AJM Petroleum
Consultants website at www.ajmpetroleumconsultants.com .
AJM Petroleum Consultants, a privately owned Calgary-based company, has
extensive experience in corporate reserve evaluations, acquisition and
divestiture evaluations, and evaluations of unconventional reserves such as
coal bed methane, tight gas, shale gas and bitumen/heavy oil. Diverse
engineering and geological capabilities combined with a forward thinking
approach to technology have allowed AJM to provide innovative solutions to
clients in the upstream sector of the oil and gas industry in Western Canada,
North America and internationally. Over time, the company's price forecasts
have proved to be more realistic than others in the industry.
For further information:
For further information: or to book interviews: Andrea Conway, AJM
Petroleum Consultants, Office: (403) 648-3269, Mobile: (403) 561-8620