Expected delays of large construction projects to restrain Nova Scotia's growth rate, says RBC



    TORONTO, July 3 /CNW/ - Probable delays in the launch of construction of
two large capital expenditure projects are expected to restrain growth of Nova
Scotia's economy to two per cent in 2008 and 2.4 per cent in 2009, according
to the latest provincial forecast released today by RBC.
    "Recent indications are that the large $4.5 billion Maple LNG project and
related Keltic Petrochemical plant may be delayed due to difficulties securing
feed stocks," said Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist,
RBC. "As a result, we are now assuming that construction of these projects
will not get underway until sometime next year, prompting us to downgrade our
forecast slightly."
    Despite the downward growth revisions, Nova Scotia's economic outlook
remains positive. Underlying economic support will be provided by construction
work on other large projects, such as the Deep Panuke natural gas development
and ongoing spending on wind-power generation. Consumer spending appears on a
solid upward track, and strength is also evident in the province's
manufacturing sector, specifically aerospace and shipbuilding, which has shown
impressive gains over the first fourth months of the year. The report notes
that the delayed start of the LNG facility is also expected to curb employment
growth, which is already showing signs of slowing down in the first five
months of this year.
    The main theme of the Provincial Outlook continues to be the different
paths the Eastern and Western parts of the country are taking. Record-high
commodity prices and strong global demand for resources sustain unprecedented
prosperity in the Western provinces, while the strong Canadian dollar,
downturn in the U.S. economy and high energy prices continue to cause hardship
in key sectors in provinces east of Manitoba. Saskatchewan is projected to
lead all of the provinces in economic growth for both 2008 and 2009, followed
by Alberta, while Newfoundland and Labrador and Ontario are expected to lag
the group this year, but should show some improvement next year.

    The RBC Economics Provincial Outlook assesses the provinces according to
economic growth, employment growth, unemployment rates, personal income
growth, retail sales, housing starts, and the Consumer Price Index.
    According to the report (available online as of 8 a.m. E.D.T., at
www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/provfcst.pdf), provincial forecast details
are as follows:

    
                    Real GDP           Housing starts         Retail sales

                                          Thousands
                  07    08    09        07    08    09        07    08    09
                  --    --    --        --    --    --        --    --    --
    NFLD.        9.1   0.2   1.3       2.6   2.6   2.0       8.9   6.0   2.0
    P.E.I.       2.0   1.2   1.6       0.8   0.7   0.6       7.7   4.5   3.7
    N.S.         1.6   2.0   2.4       4.8   4.7   4.0       4.2   5.5   4.5
    N.B.         1.6   2.0   2.5       4.2   4.2   3.4       5.7   4.6   4.0
    QUE.         2.4   1.0   2.3      48.6  47.1  40.0       4.6   4.3   4.4
    ONT.         2.1   0.7   2.2      68.1  68.7  59.3       3.9   4.4   4.5
    MAN.         3.3   2.7   2.7       5.7   5.9   4.5       8.8   8.5   7.0
    SASK.        2.8   3.7   3.8       6.0   6.6   4.5      13.0  12.0  11.0
    ALTA.        3.3   3.1   3.0      48.3  38.3  35.1       9.3   4.5   7.0
    B.C.         3.1   2.2   2.9      39.2  37.2  30.5       6.7   4.5   7.5
    CANADA       2.7   1.4   2.5       228   216   184       5.8   5.2   5.6


                   Employment                CPI


                  07    08    09        07    08    09
                  --    --    --        --    --    --
    NFLD.        0.6   2.0   0.5       1.5   2.5   1.4
    P.E.I.       1.0   1.3   0.3       1.8   3.2   1.5
    N.S.         1.3   1.0   1.9       1.9   3.0   1.6
    N.B.         2.1   1.6   1.0       1.9   1.8   1.5
    QUE.         2.3   1.4   1.3       1.6   2.2   1.4
    ONT.         1.6   1.5   1.3       1.8   2.0   1.5
    MAN.         1.6   2.1   1.7       2.0   2.0   1.5
    SASK.        2.1   2.4   2.3       2.8   3.4   2.6
    ALTA.        4.7   3.0   2.1       5.0   3.3   2.5
    B.C.         3.2   2.6   2.5       1.8   2.0   1.5
    CANADA       2.3   1.9   1.6       2.1   2.3   1.6
    





For further information:

For further information: Craig Wright, RBC Economics, (416) 974-7457;
Robert Hogue, RBC Economics, (416) 974-6192; Jackie Braden, RBC Media
Relations, (416) 974-2124


Custom Packages

Browse our custom packages or build your own to meet your unique communications needs.

Start today.

CNW Membership

Fill out a CNW membership form or contact us at 1 (877) 269-7890

Learn about CNW services

Request more information about CNW products and services or call us at 1 (877) 269-7890