Connacher Reports Year-End 2014 Reserves

CALGARY, Feb. 5, 2015 /CNW/ - Connacher Oil and Gas Limited (CLL – TSX; "Connacher" or the "Company") announces its year-end reserves as of December 31, 2014, as evaluated by GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd. ("GLJ"), independent qualified reserves evaluators.

Proved producing reserves decreased by 10 per cent to 20.2 million barrels taking into account additions and bitumen sales of 5.06 million barrels for the year.

Estimated proved ("1P") bitumen reserves totaled approximately 219 million barrels, an increase of three per cent over year-end 2013 volumes. The ten per cent present value ("10% PV") of 1P bitumen reserves is approximately $868 million as compared to $900 million in 2013.

Proved and probable ("2P") reserve volumes were approximately 441 million barrels of bitumen, down one per cent from a year earlier. The 10% PV of these 2P bitumen reserves decreased by 15 per cent to approximately $1.45 billion, due mainly to the lower near term bitumen prices forecast by GLJ.  

Connacher's first SAGD project at Great Divide, Pod One, has been producing bitumen since late 2007, with commercial production commencing March 1, 2008. Algar commenced producing bitumen in August 2010 and commerciality was achieved October 1, 2010. Production from Great Divide since startup through December 31, 2014 has totaled approximately 26.4 million barrels of bitumen. Such amounts have been deducted from earlier estimates of proved reserves prior to the calculation of reserves as at December 31, 2014.

Unless otherwise stated, reserves refer to reserves of bitumen. Future net revenue is calculated after the deduction of forecast royalties, operating expenses, estimated future capital expenditures and well abandonment costs, but before corporate overhead or other indirect costs, including interest and income taxes, from forecast revenue. Certain amounts cited herein have been rounded for presentation purposes. Outstanding financial hedges were not included in the evaluation. The GLJ December 31, 2014 report ("Year-End 2014 Report") was prepared utilizing the GLJ January 1, 2015 price forecast, effective December 31, 2014. Readers are referred to the notes to the Summary Tables included in this press release for details regarding the price forecast used by GLJ. Earlier reports were prepared using the price forecasts then being applied by GLJ. Future net revenues disclosed herein do not represent fair market value. Also, estimations of reserves and future net revenue discussed in this press release constitute forward looking information. See "Forward Looking Information and Reserves Advisory" below.

The Year-End 2014 Report was prepared using assumptions and methodology guidelines outlined in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook ("COGE Handbook") and in accordance with National Instrument 51-101 ("NI 51-101"). Comparisons provided herein with respect to Connacher's bitumen reserves and for 10% PV for December 31, 2013 are to estimates contained in the report, prepared by GLJ, with an effective date of December 31, 2013 ("Year-End 2013 Report").

Furthermore, additional information regarding Connacher's reserves and resources, including the Company's interest in the resources and the risks and the level of uncertainty associated with the recovery of the resources, can be found in the Company's annual information form ("AIF") dated March 19, 2014. This AIF can be accessed at www.sedar.com. The Company will be filing an updated AIF later this year and prior to March 31, 2015, once it has completed the audit of its financial and operating results for the year-ended December 31, 2014 and has released them to the public.

Detailed information included in the Year-End 2014 Report regarding Connacher's bitumen reserves and associated present values are set forth in the tables below, including a comparison of year-end 2014 results to year-end 2013 results.

Summary Tables

Set out below is a summary of the bitumen reserves and the value of future net revenue of the Corporation as at December 31, 2014 as evaluated by GLJ in the Year-End 2014 Report. The preparation date of the Year-End 2014 Report is January 30, 2015. The pricing used in the forecast price evaluations is set forth in the notes to the tables.


BITUMEN RESERVE VOLUMES
BASED ON FORECAST PRICES AND COSTS(8)





Bitumen



Gross(1)


Net(1)






(Mbbl)


(Mbbl)


Proved Reserves










Producing(2)(5)

20,173


19,082


Developed Non-Producing(2)(6)

-


-


Undeveloped(2)(7)

199,120


173,034


Total Proved(2)

219,293


192,116







Total Probable(3)

221,739


183,355







Total Proved Plus Probable(2)(3)

441,032


375,472







Total Proved Plus Probable Plus Possible(2)(3)(4)

569,741


475,754


 

 

NET PRESENT VALUE SUMMARY
BASED ON FORECAST PRICES AND COSTS(8)



Net Present Value of Future Net Revenue Before Income Taxes Discounted %/Year

($MM)


0%


5%


10%


15%


20%

Proved Reserves




















Producing(2)(5)

150


132


118


105


95











Developed Non-Producing(2)(6)

-


-


-


-


-











Undeveloped(2)(7)

3,503


1,520


750


396


210











Total Proved(2)

3,653


1,653


868


501


305











Total Probable(3)

5,288


1,538


580


270


148











Total Proved Plus Probable(2)(3)

8,942


3,191


1,448


771


453

Total Proved Plus Probable Plus Possible(2)(3)(4)

13,991


4,360


1,895


1,017


619

Tables may not add due to rounding.

Notes:

(1)

"Gross Reserves" are the Corporation's working interest (operating or non-operating) share before deducting royalties and without including any royalty interests of the Corporation. "Net Reserves" are the Corporation's working interest (operating or non-operating) share after deduction of royalty obligations, plus the Corporation's royalty interests in reserves.

(2)

"Proved" reserves are those reserves that can be estimated with a high degree of certainty to be recoverable. It is likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the estimated proved reserves.

(3)

"Probable" reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than proved reserves. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the sum of the estimated proved plus probable reserves.

(4)

"Possible" reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than probable reserves. It is unlikely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the sum of the estimated proved plus probable plus possible reserves. There is a 10% probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the sum of proved plus probable plus possible reserves.

(5)

"Developed Producing" reserves are those reserves that are expected to be recovered from completion intervals open at the time of the estimate. These reserves may be currently producing or, if shut-in, they must have previously been on production, and the date of resumption of production must be known with reasonable certainty.

(6)

"Developed Non-Producing" reserves are those reserves that either have not been on production, or have previously been on production, but are shut in, and the date of resumption of production is unknown.

(7)

"Undeveloped" reserves are those reserves expected to be recovered from known accumulations where a significant expenditure (e.g., when compared to the cost of drilling a well) is required to render them capable of production.

(8)

Pricing assumptions in the Year-End 2014 Report were as follows: US$/CDN$ exchange rates were 0.85 for 2015 and 0.875 in the Year-End 2014 Report. The following is the price forecast for the Year-End 2014 Report:

 

 

Year

Inflation %

Exchange

 Rate

NYMEX WTI

 Current

 US$/bbl

Light Sweet

 Edmonton

 C$/bbl

WCS @

 Hardisty

 C$/bbl

Edmonton

 Pentane Plus

 C$/bbl

AECO Spot

 Current

 C$/Mscf

2015

2

0.850

62.50

64.71

54.35

69.24

3.31

2016

2

0.875

75.00

80.00

67.20

85.60

3.77

2017

2

0.875

80.00

85.71

72.00

91.71

4.02

2018

2

0.875

85.00

91.43

76.80

97.83

4.27

2019

2

0.875

90.00

97.14

81.60

103.94

4.53

2020

2

0.875

95.00

102.86

86.40

110.06

4.78

2021

2

0.875

98.54

106.18

89.19

113.62

5.03

2022

2

0.875

100.51

108.31

90.98

115.89

5.28

2023

2

0.875

102.52

110.47

92.79

118.20

5.53

2024

2

0.875

104.57

112.67

94.65

120.56

5.71

 

 

Comparison of Reserves 2013/2014

BITUMEN GROSS RESERVES (THOUSAND BBLS)





31-Dec-13

31-Dec-14

Proved Producing

22,525

20,173

Total Proved Reserves (1P)

212,063

219,293

Probable

234,314

221,739

 Proved and Probable Reserves (2P)

446,377

441,032

Proved, Probable & Possible (3P)

564,045

569,741

 

 

10% PRESENT VALUE OF FUTURE NET REVENUE  OF BITUMEN

RESERVES - BEFORE TAX





31-Dec-13

31-Dec-14


$MM

$MM

Proved Producing

401

118

Total Proved Reserves (1P)

900

868

Probable

794

580

Proved and Probable Reserves (2P)

1,694

1,448

Possible

726

447

Proved, Probable and Possible  (3P)

2,420

1,895

 

Forward Looking Information and Reserves Advisory

This press release contains forward looking information, including but not limited to estimated reserves and future net revenues associated therewith and the proposed timing of the release of the Company's Annual Information Form for the year ended December 31, 2014. The forward looking information is based on current expectations that involve a number of risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. These risks include, but are not limited to risks associated with the oil and gas industry (e.g. operational risks in development, exploration and production delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures; the uncertainty of reserve estimates; the uncertainty associated with geological interpretations; the uncertainty of estimates and projections in relation to production, costs and expenses and health, safety and environmental risks), the risk of commodity price and foreign exchange rate fluctuations, risks associated with the implementation of new technology, risks associated with obtaining, maintaining and the timing of receipt of regulatory approvals, permits, and licenses, uncertainties relating to access to capital markets and the risk of volatile global economic conditions. Additional risks and uncertainties are described in the Company's Annual Information Form which is filed on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.

This press release includes information pertaining to the reserves and the value of future net revenue of the Corporation as at December 31, 2014 and December 31, 2013 as evaluated by GLJ in its reports dated January 30, 2015 and February 17, 2014, respectively (together the "GLJ Reports"). Statements relating to reserves are deemed to be forward looking information, as they involve the implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions, that the reserves described exist in the quantities predicted or estimated, and can be profitably produced in the future. The GLJ Reports are based on a number of assumptions relating to factors such as initial production rates, production decline rates, ultimate recovery of reserves, timing and amount of capital expenditures, marketability of production, future prices of bitumen, operating costs, anticipated reductions in SORs and operating costs as a result of installation of pumps in certain wells to improve productivity, well abandonment and salvage values, royalties and other government levies that may be imposed during the producing life of the reserves. Moreover, there is no assurance that the forecast price and cost assumptions contained in the GLJ Reports will be attained and variances could be material.  The reserves estimates of Connacher's properties described herein are estimates only. The actual reserves on Connacher's properties may be greater or less than those calculated. The present value of estimated future net revenues referred to herein should not be construed as the fair market value of estimated bitumen reserves attributable to Connacher's properties.

Due to the risks, uncertainties and assumptions inherent in forward looking information, prospective investors in the Company's securities should not place undue reliance on forward looking information. Forward looking information contained in this press release is made as of the date hereof and are subject to change. The Company assumes no obligation to revise or update forward looking information to reflect new circumstances, except as required by law.

About Connacher

Connacher is a Calgary-based in-situ oil sands developer, producer and marketer of bitumen. The Company holds a 100 per cent interest in approximately 440 million barrels of proved and probable bitumen reserves and operates two SAGD facilities located on the Company's Great Divide oil sands leases near Fort McMurray, Alberta.

SOURCE Connacher Oil and Gas Limited

For further information: Chris Bloomer, Chief Executive Officer; Greg Pollard, Chief Financial Officer; Connacher Oil and Gas Limited, Phone: (403) 538-6201, Fax: (403) 538-6225, Suite 900, 332 - 6th Avenue SW, Calgary, Alberta T2P 0B2, inquiries@connacheroil.com, www.connacheroil.com

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