Canadian entertainment and media market to expand to $47 billion by 2011



    Digital and mobile paving the way for innovative opportunities

    TORONTO, June 21 /CNW/ - The overall Canadian entertainment and media
(E&M) market is experiencing sustained growth and will expand at a consistent
5.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to US$47 billion in 2011 from
$36 billion in 2006. According to the latest PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
Global Entertainment and Media Outlook: 2007-2011, growth in Canada is
comparable to the global growth projected at 6.4% CAGR to US$2 trillion in
2011. Asia Pacific and Latin America are the highest of the regions advancing
at compound rates of 9.6% and 8.9% respectively, well in excess of their
growth in nominal GDP.
    The eighth annual edition of PwC's Outlook contains in-depth analyses and
forecasts of 14 major industry segments across five regions of the globe - the
U.S., EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa), Asia Pacific, Latin America, and
Canada.
    Double-digit growth is expected for digital and mobile spending in each
region during the next five years rising to US$153 billion by 2011. Spending
related to the distribution of entertainment and media on convergent platforms
(convergence of the home computer, wireless handset and television) is also
growing at high single digit rates and will overtake other traditional
platforms in 2008.
    In Canada, the Internet access and advertising segment is expected to see
the largest growth with a 12.2% CAGR, reaching US$4.5 billion in 2011 from
US $2.5 billion in 2006. Internet advertising leads the way, growing at 23.5%
CAGR to US$2 billion in 2011. Internet access spending will grow at a 6.3%
CAGR to US$2.5 billion in 2011 fueled by a 9.9% CAGR in broadband access
spending offsetting decline in dial-up.
    Tracey Jennings, Canada's new leader of the Entertainment and Media
practice comments, "Online advertising is growing explosively in each region
fuelled by the growth of the Internet as an entertainment centre for social
networking and a distribution channel to access entertainment content.
    Speed is important to enable access to content such as playing video
games or other content including music and video downloads. Increasing
broadband and high-speed wireless networks in Canada are, therefore, fuelling
growth in internet and wireless distributions of other segments, most
significantly video games and music."
    Supposed 'traditional' markets will see solid expansion as well with the
radio/out-of-home market in Canada to advance at an 11.7% CAGR - the fastest
of any region - rising from US$1.6 billion in 2006 to US$2.8 billion in 2011.
Driven by new technologies in digital billboards, 3D displays, and in-store
video networks, out-of-home advertising will make up a chunk of the growth
with an expansion of 8.7% CAGR, rising from US$331 million in 2006 to
US$502 million in 2011. Radio will continue to attract significant audiences
and will expand to US$2.3 billion in 2011 from US$1.3 billion in 2006, a 12.4%
CAGR.
    "Radio offers strong local markets and good access to targeted consumers
making it very attractive to advertisers. The audience has not gone away from
local radio as once predicted," notes Jennings. "Radio has also taken
advantage of Internet technology, and increasingly mobile, to further their
message and their reach."
    Video gaming is another key sector for the Canadian E&M market, being
propelled by the high broadband penetration in the country. This sector will
expand to US$1.4 billion in 2011, a CAGR of 9.4%. Console/handheld games will
expand at a 5.4% annual rate from US$425 million in 2006 to US$554 million in
2011. Online games will grow from US$248 million in 2006 to US$476 million in
2011, reflecting a 13.9% CAGR. Wireless games will increase from US$89 million
in 2006 to US$230 million in 2011, a whopping 20.9% CAGR increase - the
largest growth rate of the market.
    "Canada has one of the highest broadband penetration rates in the world.
Possibly as a result, online games represent a more significant segment of the
gaming market in Canada than in other regions. In 2006, the online gaming
segment constituted 28% of the gaming market in Canada compared with 21% in
Asia Pacific - another area with high broadband penetration," says Jerry
Brown, Director responsible for PwC's Canadian Entertainment and Media
Advisory Practice.
    Other key Canadian projections from the Outlook are summarized below.

    TV Distribution and Networks (broadcast and cable)

    The entrance of telephone companies into the TV distribution market will
enhance total subscription penetration and the Canadian market will expand at
a 5.7% CAGR to US$5.5 billion in 2011.
    Basic subscription spending will grow at a 4.8% CAGR to US$3.5 billion.
Premium subscriptions will rise to US$853 million, a 4.5% increase reflecting
Canada's relatively mature premium market. Video-on-demand (which is exclusive
to cable companies and IP TV providers) will continue to be the
fastest-growing category, with a 28.9% CAGR increase to US$498 million in
2011.
    The television network market is expected to expand at a 4.5% CAGR to
US$4.6 billion in 2011. Specialty channel advertising will be the fastest
growing sector, with a projected 7.6% CAGR increase to US$1.1 billion.
    "Digital distribution enhances the specialty and pay-television markets
by substantially increasing channel capacity and providing those channels with
greater exposure," notes Jennings. "Audiences are growing, and advertising is
following. Specialty channel advertising rose 10.6% in 2006 and averaged 14.2%
CAGR annually during the past five years. During the same period, national
broadcast advertising rose at only a 2.7% CAGR."

    Recorded music

    The PwC Outlook projects that recorded music spending in Canada will
trickle up at a slow 1.0% CAGR from US$752 million in 2006 to US$791 million
in 2011. Physical distribution will fall from US$675 million in 2006 to
US$433 million in 2011, an 8.5% compound annual decline. Digital distribution
will expand by 36% compounded annually to US$358 million from $77 million in
2006. Internet distribution will total US$193 million in 2011 from US$29
million in 2006, a 46.1% CAGR increase. Sales of music to mobile phones will
rise by 28% CAGR to US$165 million in 2011 from US$48 million in 2006.
    "A rise in album and music video average prices may have contributed to
the drop in unit sales in 2006. The average album price rose 2.2% to US$12.78,
and the average music video increased 8.2% to US$14.98. To help limit unit
sales erosion and to combat piracy, we expect average prices to resume a
downward trend," says Brown.

    Filmed Entertainment

    Filmed entertainment spending in Canada will grow at a 4% CAGR to
US$6.9 billion in 2011 from $5.6 billion in 2006. Box office spending will
expand by 4.6% compounded annually to $1 billion. Home video sell-through will
increase to US$4 billion in 2011 from $3.3 billion in 2006, a 3.7% CAGR
increase. In-store rental growth will average 1.1% compounded annually to
US$1.6 billion from US$1.5 billion. Online rental subscriptions will rise to
US$285 million in 2011 from only $12 million in 2006, an 88.4% compounded
annually. The overall home video rental market will expand at a 4.4% CAGR to
US$1.9 billion. Total home video spending will rise from US$4.8 billion to
US$5.8 billion, averaging a 3.9% CAGR.
    Brown notes that, "There are some very interesting trends in Canada in
the filmed entertainment market. First of all, the arrival of digital
distribution in the theatres will help open the market to Canadian and
speciality films and enable them to find a larger audience as reduced
duplication costs will allow for a wider release. Secondly, the industry is
innovating with related products such as reduced prices for popcorn and soda
on low-volume Tuesdays and screenings of events such hockey games and opera at
theatres when there is no TV coverage. This provides exhibitors a chance to
promote upcoming films and showcase theatre amenities. In addition theatres
are driving revenues through co-promotions with businesses such as banks
leading to increased theatre traffic supported by the sponsoring partner."

    Casino and Other Regulated Gaming

    Canada's casino and online gaming market is expected to grow by a 7.9%
CAGR from US$4 billion in 2006 to $5.9 billion in 2011. Casino gaming revenue
will expand from US$3.3 billion in 2006 to $4.6 billion in 2011, a 7.3%
increase compounded annually. Online gaming will reach US$859 million in 2011
from US$529 million in 2006, growing at a 10.2% CAGR.
    "Online gaming revenue totalled US$529 million in 2006, 20% more than in
2005. During the past five years, online gaming revenues quadrupled. That
growth is suspected to be one of the reasons that lottery revenues in Canada
have declined," says Jennings.

    Newspaper Publishing

    Free newspapers and competition from the Internet will lead to continued
declines in unit circulation and a decrease in circulation spending.
Advertisers will follow readers to the Internet, leading to declines in
classified advertising and slower growth in overall newspaper advertising. The
newspaper industry in Canada will expand at a 1% CAGR from US$3.1 billion in
2006 to US$3.2 billion in 2011. Advertising will reach US$2.5 billion in 2011,
up 1.3% on a compound annual basis from US$2.4 billion in 2006.
    "It's not all bad news for newspapers. Growth in broadband Internet
access is stimulating Internet advertising in general, and newspaper Web sites
are benefiting from that trend given the inherent strength of newspaper brands
as a means of driving local search traffic. In addition, "rich content" video
ads, coupons and circulars - popular formats among packaged-goods advertisers
and supermarket chains - can be distributed easily and efficiently online,"
says Brown.

    For further details on the PricewaterhouseCoopers Global Entertainment
and Media Outlook: 2007-2011 please contact Carolyn Forest,
carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com, 416-814-5730 or visit www.pwc.com/outlook.

    PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
related entities have more than 4,700 partners and staff in offices across the
country.

    "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.





For further information:

For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com; Peter Zvanitajs,
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, (416) 941-8383 x 13408,
peter.zvanitajs@ca.pwc.com

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