2009-2025 Canadian Crude Oil Forecast and Market Outlook



    CALGARY, June 5 /CNW/ - The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
(CAPP) today released its 2009 crude oil production forecast and markets and
pipelines outlook.
    Earlier this year CAPP conducted a survey of producers to determine
planned production of oil through 2025. CAPP used this data along with other
inputs to prepare its annual forecast, which this year provides both a Growth
Case and an Operating & In Construction Case.
    "CAPP's Production Forecast indicates that even with delays due to
current economic circumstances, oil sands production is expected to grow,
although the pace of development has slowed," said Greg Stringham, CAPP's
Vice-President, Markets and Oil Sands. "Producers expect continued demand for
the security of supply that crude oil from Canada provides to the North
American energy market."
    The Growth Case represents expected production and assumes the current
investment climate will improve over time. The more conservative outlook in
the Operating & In Construction Case includes only projects currently in
operation or under construction. This case represents a minimum growth
outlook. Both cases are presented in the chart below:

    
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Total Canadian Crude Oil Production (million barrels/day) - including
                                  oil sands
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   2008        2015        2020        2025
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Growth Case                     2.7         3.3         4.0         4.2
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Operating & In Construction     2.7         3.0         3.0         2.8
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
             Canadian Oil Sands Production (million barrels/day)
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Growth Case                     1.2         2.2         2.9         3.3
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Operating & In Construction     1.2         1.9         2.0         2.0
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    

    Low oil prices, receding short-term demand as a result of the global
economic downturn, and constraints in securing investment capital are some of
the factors contributing to the reduced pace of development reflected in the
Growth Case. In the Operating & In Construction Case, production is forecast
to rise to 3.0 million barrels per day (b/d) by 2015 and then decline
gradually through 2025, due to a reduction in conventional production. This
reduction is moderated by increased light crude oil production from the Bakken
field in Saskatchewan over the near-term, and the Hebron heavy oil project in
Atlantic Canada, expected to come on stream by 2017.
    For the oil sands component of Canada's oil supply, the share of supply
coming from in situ projects increases slightly over the forecast period and
the proportion of total oil sands that is upgraded remains relatively
unchanged over the forecast period.
    "In terms of pipeline capacity to meet market expectations, this year's
outlook indicates that the significant pipeline development now underway will
amply connect forecasted production to long-term demand in the North American
energy market," Stringham said.
    A full copy of the 2009 forecast is available at www.capp.ca.





For further information:

For further information: or to schedule an interview, please contact:
Travis Davies, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers - Media Relations,
W: (403) 267-1151, C: (403) 542-4115, E: Travis.Davies@capp.ca

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