ST. JOHN'S, Nov. 12 /CNW Telbec/ - Newfoundland and Labrador's
international exports are expected to decline by 13 per cent in 2009 in tandem
with an expected drop in oil prices, according to a provincial export outlook
by Export Development Canada (EDC).
'Newfoundland and Labrador are blessed with significant oil resources,
but as such, they ride the roller coaster of commodity prices set in the
global marketplace. This is the key driver behind the big drop in the
province's exports in 2009,' said Peter Hall, Vice-President and Chief
Economist.
The energy sector accounts for 73 per cent of Newfoundland and Labrador's
international export picture. EDC is forecasting a 33 per cent increase in
energy exports this year, to be followed by a 19 per cent drop in 2009 in line
with an expected drop in oil prices. 'Prices aren't the only story in the
energy sector forecast,' continued Mr. Hall. 'Newfoundland's crude production
hit a record 134 million barrels in 2007, but the volume of the output will be
lower in 2008 and 2009.' Export volumes of refined products are expected to be
flat, but export revenues are forecasted to trend downwards in line with
declining crude oil prices. Overall, EDC forecasts WTI crude to average USD 84
per barrel in 2009, after averaging USD 110 per barrel in 2008.
The industrial goods sector accounts for 15 per cent of the province's
exports, and the sector is rising rapidly in 2008 because of higher iron ore
output and prices. Accordingly, this sector is expected to grow by 48 per cent
in 2008 before slowing to 3 per cent growth in 2009. Overall the outlook for
mining in the province is favourable, on sizable exploration and deposit
assessment spending.
The agrifood sector accounts for 7 per cent of Newfoundland's exports.
EDC does not anticipate major quota adjustments for key species such as crab
or shrimp. Exporters of fish and seafood are facing discouraging demand
conditions with consumer confidence down dramatically in the U.S., Europe and
Japan. However, there will be much needed relief from lower diesel prices and
a falling Canadian dollar. The emerging aquaculture segment remains the
brightest area of the sector, with revenues increasing in 2008 and 2009.
Canadian exports are forecast to grow by 2 per cent in 2008 before
declining 1 per cent in 2009. The Canadian economy is expected to grow by 0.9
per cent in 2008 with a slight upturn to 1.4 per cent in 2009.
Internationally, EDC is forecasting a 3.8 per cent growth rate in 2008 and 3.3
per cent 2009. EDC's Global Export Forecast is available at
http://www.edc.ca/gef.
EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial
solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international
business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by nearly 7,000 Canadian
companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year.
EDC is financially self-sustaining, is a recognized leader in financial
reporting and economic analysis, and has been named one of Canada's Top 100
Employers for eight consecutive years.
For further information: Phil Taylor, Export Development Canada, (613)
598-2904, ptaylor@edc.ca
