ST. JOHN'S, Nov. 2, 2011 /CNW/ - On the heels of a banner year for the
province's international exports in 2011, which saw a 21 per cent gain,
Newfoundland and Labrador's exports will see growth slow to 2 per cent
in 2012 as both oil prices and production weaken, according to a Global
Export Forecast by Export Development Canada (EDC).
"Falling production and world oil prices will deal the province's energy
sector a one-two punch in 2012, but aggressive growth in mining exports
will save the day," said Peter Hall, EDC's Chief Economist .
Hall was in St. John's today to share his forecast with EDC customers,
the second stop on a 10-city cross-Canada tour.
"Given the dominance of the energy sector in the provincial export
picture, it is remarkable that growth in the much smaller mineral
industry will be able to offset the decline in energy exports next
year." Energy exports account for almost two-thirds of the province's
exports, with mineral shipments adding a further 24 per cent.
Newfoundland and Labrador's international energy exports are forecast to
decline by 8 per cent in 2012 after rising 5.5 per cent in 2010 and an
impressive 17 per cent this year.
"EDC expects oil prices to remain close to current levels as the global
economy recovers. The unwinding of speculative pressure is expected to
lower WTI crude from an average of USD 94/brl in 2011 to USD 85/brl in
2012. Further shocks to world growth threaten to further undermine
global oil prices."
EDC's forecast for Newfoundland's industrial goods sector calls for a
jump of 25 per cent in 2012 on top of an even more stunning 32 per cent
gain this year.
"The province's iron ore shipments are in the sweet spot, basking in
sizzling global demand for steel. Prices are strong and production is
forecast to rise at IOC, Wabush and Labrador Iron Mines. Longer term,
investments by New Millennium and Tata Steel should set up the
province's industrial goods exports for many years of growth."
Canadian exports of goods and services are forecast to rise 11 per cent
in 2011 and 7 per cent in 2012. Nationally, economic growth is expected
to rise 2.3 per cent in 2011 and 2.4 per cent in 2012. EDC is
forecasting global growth of 3.7 per cent in 2011 and 4.3 per cent in
EDC's semi-annual Global Export Forecast addresses the latest global
export conditions including perspectives on interest rates, exchange
rates as well as export strategies to help Canadian companies minimize
risk. It also analyzes a range of risks for which exporters should be
prepared. EDC's Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/gef.
EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial
solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their
international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by
more than 8,200 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to
200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining and
a recognized leader in financial reporting and economic analysis.
B-Roll footage of Peter Hall's forecast comments available at: http://Exportwise.ca/listvideo_en.
SOURCE Export Development Canada
For further information:
Export Development Canada