MONTREAL, Nov. 22, 2011 /CNW/ - Quebec's international exports are
forecast to grow by another 7 per cent in 2012 after an estimated 4 per
cent gain in 2011, according to a Global Export Forecast by Export
Development Canada (EDC).
"The Canadian trend of diversifying into emerging markets is evident in
Quebec with China expected to replace the U.K. this year as the
province's number two export destination behind the U.S.," said Peter
Hall., Chief Economist at EDC.
"In 2012, the aerospace sector will be the star performer, offsetting
reduced growth from industrial products as the price effect begins to
wear off. The beleaguered forestry sector will get a 9 per cent boost
in 2012 thanks to rising momentum in U.S. homebuilding. The
extraordinary financial and monetary conditions that are supporting
record high prices for gold and other base metals will persist through
next year, another boon to Quebec's 2012 export receipts."
The province's international export picture is led by four key sectors:
Industrial goods, accounting for 39 per cent of the province's total
Machinery and Equipment, accounting for 13 per cent;
Forestry, accounting for 13 per cent; and
Transportation, accounting for 12 per cent.
The province's exports of industrial goods are forecast to rise by 6 per
cent in 2012, on the heels of a 7 per cent increase in 2011. "Quebec's
aluminum exports will be boosted by strong prices this year, however
production will be flat this year and next with the only notable ramp
up in production occurring at Rio Tinto's Laterrière smelter. Activity
in the mining sector is booming, in large part because of an $80
billion government-led initiative to support mineral extraction in the
northern regions (Plan Nord) and the development of Malartic and
Quebec's machinery and equipment export sector is forecast to grow by 5
per cent in 2012, after a 5 per cent gain in 2011. "Despite a downward
revision to our U.S. growth outlook this year, investment activity in
the private sector is driving export demand as record-high cash levels,
improving business confidence and accelerated tax deductions for
capital investment fuel higher spending by U.S. businesses," Hall said.
"Sales to emerging markets, though still a small share of overall sales,
will continue to outpace those to developed markets throughout and
beyond the forecast period."
EDC's forecast calls for Quebec's forestry sector exports to grow by 9
per cent in 2012 after two years of zero gains.
"Even though significant challenges like the strong Canadian dollar,
overcapacity, high input costs, and increased overseas competition
continue to pose a hurdle to companies within the Canadian forestry
industry, there is some good news developing for 2012, Hall said.
"Surging demand from emerging markets, particularly from China, is
breathing new life into the wood products and pulp industry, and EDC's
forecast for resumption in the U.S. housing market by the end of 2012
will be welcome news to the timber industry."
The transportation sector is forecast to grow 23 per cent in 2012 after
a slight decline of 1 per cent in 2011. "The aerospace sector, which
has been suffering from plunging demand and deferrals throughout the
recession, is beginning to heat up with a rebound of orders and an
increasing backlog of planes on the OEM's order book. The outlook for
the U.S., the top export destination, will be fairly flat this year
with few aircraft scheduled for delivery in 2011, but will return to
growth next year as Bombardier's recently announced purchase agreement
with NetJets for up to 120 new global aircraft signals a revival of
demand in the business jet sector."
Canadian exports of goods and services are forecast to rise 11 per cent
in 2011 and 7 per cent in 2012. Nationally, economic growth is expected
to rise 2.3 per cent in 2011 and 2.4 per cent in 2012. EDC is
forecasting global growth of 3.7 per cent in 2011 and 4.3 per cent in
EDC's semi-annual Global Export Forecast addresses the latest global
export conditions including perspectives on interest rates, exchange
rates as well as export strategies to help Canadian companies minimize
risk. It also analyzes a range of risks for which exporters should be
prepared. EDC's Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/gef.
B-Roll footage of Peter Hall's forecast comments available at: http://Exportwise.ca/listvideo_en.
EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial
solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their
international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by
more than 8,200 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to
200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining and
a recognized leader in financial reporting and economic analysis.
SOURCE Export Development Canada
For further information:
Export Development Canada