Pharmaceutical Industry Bracing for Record Patent Expiries, EvaluatePharma Data Reveals

LONDON, Feb. 2 /CNW/ - Thirteen US blockbusters will lose patent protection over the next two years, data from EvaluatePharma show, highlighting the challenges facing the pharmaceutical industry in the coming years. With the reporting season in full swing it is no wonder that several big pharmaceutical company chief executives have warned of tough times ahead.

  • Drugs worth $15.3bn face generic competition this year
  • "At risk" sales to more than double to $33.2bn by 2012, biggest annual total on record
  • $133bn of branded drugs face patent expiry in next six years in the US alone
  • Pfizer to bear brunt of patent cliff with $11bn Lipitor expiry later this year

The sector is facing an unprecedented period of patent expiries when mega-blockbusters, including Lipitor, Plavix and Zyprexa, will all be exposed to cheap, generic drugs. While this is good news in terms of lowering healthcare bills, companies like Pfizer and Eli Lilly are facing the loss of hugely profitable franchises.

Top products going off-patent in 2011 and 2012

        USA annual sales ($m)
Year Rank Product Company       2010   2011   2012   2013   2014   2015 2016
2011 1 Lipitor Pfizer       5,329 4,528    492    146     73     45 42
  2 Zyprexa Eli Lilly    2,496 1,949    339    218    188    172 157
  3 Levaquin Johnson & Johnson   1,312    734    155     62     43     30 17
  4 Concerta Johnson & Johnson     929    587    306    221    189    150 111
  5 Protonix Pfizer         690    279    172     96     64     41 17
2012  1 Plavix Bristol-Myers Squibb 6,154 6,315 3,014    382    113     61 28
  2 Seroquel AstraZeneca 3,747 3,771 1,669    985    861    792 732
  3 Singulair Merck & Co   3,224 3,356 2,178    364    125     53 21
  4 Actos Takeda       3,351 3,275 1,360    582    511    462 413
  5 Enbrel Amgen        3,304 3,258 3,218 3,157 3,097 3,024 2,967
  6 Lexapro Forest Laboratories      2,264 2,122    188     66     50     43 39
  7 Diovan Novartis     2,520 2,093 1,540    394    333    279 246
  8 Viagra Pfizer         992 1,007    328     75     59     54 46
  9 Provigil Cephalon     1,027    916    403     87     38     28 17
  10 Geodon Pfizer         864    907    539    120     35     28 22

By 2016, medicines that generate sales of $133bn for their manufacturers in the US alone will be exposed to generics. And while this year looks bad, next year is a true annus horribilis: drugs worth $33.2bn this year will lose patent protection in 2012, more than double this year's figure.

Big pharma patent expiry risk over next 3 years (data based on FY 2010 estimates)

  WW Pharma Sales in 2010 ($bn)    Patent expired sales ($bn) Patent expiry within 3 years ($bn)     % portfolio at risk within 3 years
Pfizer 53.6 13.8 22.7 68%
Eli Lilly 20.8 3.1 10.6 66%
Bristol-Myers Squibb 15.6 0.9 8.2 58%
Johnson & Johnson 24.3 6.5 6.3 52%
AstraZeneca 31.7 7.7 8.3 50%
Amgen 14.6 0.0 7.4 50%
Merck & Co 41.1 10.1 7.4 43%
Sanofi-Aventis 39.9 11.1 4.8 40%
Novartis 45.0 6.5 11.4 40%
GlaxoSmithKline 39.6 10.8 2.4 33%
Abbott Laboratories 19.4 3.8 1.0 25%
Roche 36.2 4.5 2.4 19%

Pfizer is bearing the brunt of these expiries with Lipitor, the cholesterol-lowering agent which generated $11bn last year. Generics will enter the US market later this year, ultimately robbing Pfizer of the world's biggest drug maker title in 2012, with Novartis the heir-apparent.

Although Eli Lilly is facing a smaller patent cliff in dollar terms, the US pharma giant is feeling similar pain. Like Pfizer, two-thirds of the company's drug sales are likely to meet generic competitors in the next three years, presenting a huge challenge which will be tough to overcome.

For more information and in-depth analysis of this data, please see: Patent storm gathering strength: http://bit.ly/f3JKPS

Pfizer patent cliff dwarfs peers as loss of Lipitor looms: http://bit.ly/fWjvUA

Notes to editors

About EvaluatePharma:

The research company EvaluatePharma Ltd was the first to supply reliable consensus forecasts of global drug sales and now provides standardised worldwide financial and forecast models with consensus product sales forecasts to 2016, data on R&D pipelines, licensing deals, patent risk and M&A activity. Launched in 2007, EvaluatePharma(R)Alpha offers a Net Present Value (NPV) valuation service quantifying market events and the impact on product, portfolio and company valuation including the daily online news service EP Vantage(R).

EvaluatePharma(R), EvaluatePharma(R)Alpha, and EP Vantage(R) are services of EvaluatePharma Ltd, headquartered in London, England. In North America, EvaluatePharma Ltd is represented by EvaluatePharma USA, Inc.

http://www.evaluatepharma.com

SOURCE EvaluatePharma Ltd

For further information:

Contact:

Christian Glennie
Senior Editorial Analyst, EP Vantage
T: +44(0)20-7539-1806
E: christiang@evaluatepharma.com

Andrew Beaven
Marketing Director, EvaluatePharma Ltd
T: +44(0)20-7539-1818
E: andrewb@evaluatepharma.com

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