Nova Scotia export growth tops in Atlantic Canada for 2012, predicts Export Development Canada

HALIFAX, Nov. 1, 2011 /CNW/ - Nova Scotia's international exports are forecast to grow by 9 per cent in 2012, the leading performance among Atlantic provinces according to the Fall 2011 Global Export Forecast released today by Export Development Canada (EDC).

"Despite soft global demand, Nova Scotia's strong export outlook for 2012 is based on spectacular growth in the energy sector, better prices for seafood and continued growth in the North American automotive industry," said Peter Hall, EDC's Chief Economist. Hall was in Halifax today to share his forecast with EDC customers, kicking off a 10-city cross-Canada tour.

"Weaker prices will not dampen enthusiasm in the energy sector. Production increases at Deep Panuke will vault natural gas exports up by 22 per cent next year. A rise in metallurgical coal production, possible in 2012, would only add to a very positive energy sector outlook."

Three other industries play a key role in the province's international exports:

  • Agri-food, accounting for 23 per cent of the province's total exports;
  • Motor vehicles and parts, accounting for 22 per cent; and
  • Forestry, accounting for 21 per cent.

Nova Scotia's international agri-food exports, up 12 per cent in 2011, are forecast to grow by 7 per cent in 2012 owing to expected higher prices for crab, lobster and scallops.

"Into 2012 and beyond, improvements in conservation technology and growing demand from pharmaceutical industries for fish oil should progressively help Nova Scotia make inroads into European markets and diversify away from the U.S., which currently attracts 60 per cent of the province's seafood exports."

EDC's forecast for the province's automotive products sector calls for a 10 per cent increase in 2012, following a respectable 4 per cent gain in 2011.

"Rising economic momentum will continue to push U.S. auto sales back to more normal volumes," said Hall. "Stronger consumer fundamentals and revived industrial production will increase vehicle demand stateside, good news for Nova Scotia tire production."

Nova Scotia's forestry sector is forecast to rebound by 6 per cent in 2012 after a decline of 3 per cent in 2011. 

"The decline this year is largely the result of the New Page shutdown. Going into 2012, newsprint shipments will benefit from higher prices, although the industry remains under pressure from the increased digitization of newspapers. On the lumber side, the upside risk is an early revival of US housing starts."

"Nova Scotia's pulp exports will be helped by new pockets of growth in emerging markets, an exciting trend that spells lots of future growth potential."

Canadian exports of goods and services are forecast to rise 11 per cent in 2011 and 7 per cent in 2012. Nationally, economic growth is expected to rise 2.3 per cent in 2011 and 2.4 per cent in 2012. EDC is forecasting global growth of 3.7 per cent in 2011 and 4.3 per cent in 2012.

EDC's semi-annual Global Export Forecast addresses the latest global export conditions including perspectives on interest rates, exchange rates as well as export strategies to help Canadian companies minimize risk. It also analyzes a range of risks for which exporters should be prepared. EDC's Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/gef.

EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by more than 8,200 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining and a recognized leader in financial reporting and economic analysis.

B-Roll footage of Peter Hall's forecast comments available at: http://Exportwise.ca/listvideo_en

SOURCE Export Development Canada

For further information:

Media contacts: 
Phil Taylor
Export Development Canada
Tel: 613.598.2904
BlackBerry: ptaylor@edc.ca


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