MONCTON, Nov. 3, 2011 /CNW/ - New Brunswick's international exports will
hold the line in 2012 as oil shipments decline, according to a Global
Export Forecast by Export Development Canada (EDC). The province is
expected to achieve impressive export growth of 15 per cent in 2011.
"The success of this year's export growth was all about the energy
sector. In 2012, the forestry and agri-food sectors will see increases
significant enough to offset the small decline in energy shipments,"
said Peter Hall, Chief Economist for EDC.
Hall was in Moncton today to share his forecast with EDC customers, the
third stop on a 10-city cross-Canada tour.
The province's international exports are dominated by the energy sector,
which accounts for 69 per cent of exports. The beleaguered forestry
sector today accounts for 12 per cent and agri-food shipments add a
further 9 per cent.
"With more than two-thirds of exports tied to the energy sector, the
overall increase in exports is in large part tied to fluctuations in
oil and natural gas prices. EDC's forecast calls for crude oil to
average USD 85 per barrel in 2012, down from USD 94 per barrel in 2011.
Any additional shocks to world growth, however, threaten to further
undermine global oil prices."
New Brunswick's forestry sector is forecast to begin a comeback next
year, with growth forecast at 13 per cent following a 1 per cent
decline in 2011.
"New Brunswick's forestry outlook varies widely for each subsector.
Exports of wood products remained depressed this year, but will rise
sharply next year as the U.S. housing sector begins to revive. On the
pulp and paper side, commodity prices have held up well, and better
fundamentals for pulp, containerboard and super-calendered paper prices
will help with overall growth through 2012."
EDC predicts that the province's agri-food sector will grow by 8 per
cent in 2012 following an expected 4 per cent gain in 2011.
Canadian exports of goods and services are forecast to rise 11 per cent
in 2011 and 7 per cent in 2012. Nationally, economic growth is expected
to rise 2.3 per cent in 2011 and 2.4 per cent in 2012. EDC is
forecasting global growth of 3.7 per cent in 2011 and 4.3 per cent in
EDC's semi-annual Global Export Forecast addresses the latest global
export conditions including perspectives on interest rates, exchange
rates as well as export strategies to help Canadian companies minimize
risk. It also analyzes a range of risks for which exporters should be
prepared. EDC's Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/gef.
EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial
solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their
international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by
more than 8,200 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to
200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining and
a recognized leader in financial reporting and economic analysis.
B-Roll footage of Peter Hall's forecast comments available at: http://Exportwise.ca/listvideo_en.
SOURCE Export Development Canada
For further information:
Export Development Canada