New Brunswick export growth will be flat in 2012 after impressive 2011, predicts Export Development Canada

MONCTON, Nov. 3, 2011 /CNW/ - New Brunswick's international exports will hold the line in 2012 as oil shipments decline, according to a Global Export Forecast by Export Development Canada (EDC). The province is expected to achieve impressive export growth of 15 per cent in 2011.

"The success of this year's export growth was all about the energy sector. In 2012, the forestry and agri-food sectors will see increases significant enough to offset the small decline in energy shipments," said Peter Hall, Chief Economist for EDC.

Hall was in Moncton today to share his forecast with EDC customers, the third stop on a 10-city cross-Canada tour.

The province's international exports are dominated by the energy sector, which accounts for 69 per cent of exports. The beleaguered forestry sector today accounts for 12 per cent and agri-food shipments add a further 9 per cent.

"With more than two-thirds of exports tied to the energy sector, the overall increase in exports is in large part tied to fluctuations in oil and natural gas prices. EDC's forecast calls for crude oil to average USD 85 per barrel in 2012, down from USD 94 per barrel in 2011. Any additional shocks to world growth, however, threaten to further undermine global oil prices."

New Brunswick's forestry sector is forecast to begin a comeback next year, with growth forecast at 13 per cent following a 1 per cent decline in 2011.

"New Brunswick's forestry outlook varies widely for each subsector. Exports of wood products remained depressed this year, but will rise sharply next year as the U.S. housing sector begins to revive. On the pulp and paper side, commodity prices have held up well, and better fundamentals for pulp, containerboard and super-calendered paper prices will help with overall growth through 2012."

EDC predicts that the province's agri-food sector will grow by 8 per cent in 2012 following an expected 4 per cent gain in 2011.

Canadian exports of goods and services are forecast to rise 11 per cent in 2011 and 7 per cent in 2012. Nationally, economic growth is expected to rise 2.3 per cent in 2011 and 2.4 per cent in 2012. EDC is forecasting global growth of 3.7 per cent in 2011 and 4.3 per cent in 2012.

EDC's semi-annual Global Export Forecast addresses the latest global export conditions including perspectives on interest rates, exchange rates as well as export strategies to help Canadian companies minimize risk. It also analyzes a range of risks for which exporters should be prepared. EDC's Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/gef.

EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by more than 8,200 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining and a recognized leader in financial reporting and economic analysis.

B-Roll footage of Peter Hall's forecast comments available at: http://Exportwise.ca/listvideo_en.

SOURCE Export Development Canada

For further information:

Media contacts:
Phil Taylor
Export Development Canada
Tel: 613.598.2904
BlackBerry: ptaylor@edc.ca


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